Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Q3 2026 — Revenue improved while nine-month cash after gross investment fell short of dividends and buybacks.
Tractor Supply reported 5.1% sales growth but weaker operating profit in Q3 2026. Hudson and Lana examine comparable transactions, inventory, property gains, capital spending and the financing behind shareholder returns. Nine-month conventional free cash flow was $231M against $720M of dividends and repurchases. Price basis: $33.42 at the October 23, 2026 close. The packet distinguishes GAAP and adjusted guidance, property proceeds and recurring operating cash.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$32.00 vs ~$33.42 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $3.910B; +5.1% year-over-year
- Comparable sales +0.4%; ticket +0.7%, transactions −0.3%
- GAAP operating income $307.7M; margin 7.87%
- GAAP diluted EPS $0.43 versus $0.49 year ago
- Nine-month OCF $882.6M; gross capex $651.6M; conventional FCF $231.0M
- Nine-month dividends + buybacks $719.7M; property proceeds $160.1M; net borrowing $470M
- FY2026 EPS guide: GAAP $1.78–$1.88; adjusted $1.90–$2.00
- Fair value $32; range $27–$37; High uncertainty; weighted scenario value $32
What to watch: Test comparable transactions, inventory turns, annual guidance and cash coverage at the January 2027 analyst review; $25.60 requires an intact operating thesis.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tsco-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PG&E Corporation (PCG) Q3 2026 — Reference price $12.63 at the October 23, 2026 completed close; historical price changes exclude dividends.
PG&E reaffirmed core earnings guidance while cutting its 2027 capital plan. We separate parent cash flows from Utility results, examine wildfire and regulatory conditions, and test the common shareholder claim.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — Analyst fair-value anchor ~$14 vs ~$12.63 at the October 23, 2026 close.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 parent revenue $6.188B; core EPS $0.41 versus $0.50 and GAAP diluted EPS $0.34 versus $0.37.
- 2026 core EPS guidance $1.64–$1.66; 2027 $1.78–$1.82; issuer non-GAAP forward measures without quantitative GAAP reconciliation.
- Parent nine-month OCF $5.840B minus cash capex $9.621B = computed FCF −$3.781B.
- 2027 capital plan reduced from $13.4B to $11.4B; old 2028–2030 outlook withdrawn.
- Analyst fair value $14, range $10–$18, versus $12.63 close; HOLD, 3/5 conviction, Very High uncertainty.
- Analyst scenarios $8 bear / $14 base / $20 bull; weighted $13.40. Not issuer forecasts.
What to watch: A financeable revised capital plan, delivered core guidance and a smaller comparable cash investment gap; below $10 prompts review only with an intact thesis.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/pcg-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Q1 FY2027 — Hard-drive margins surged while investment and convertible dilution complicated the per-share cash story.
Western Digital reported exceptional HDD revenue, margins and cash generation in Q1 FY2027. Hudson and Lana examine pricing, customer concentration, reinvestment, convertible claims and three valuation routes. Price basis: $343.67 at the October 23, 2026 close. Historical continuing HDD income is distinguished from older consolidated cash flows that include discontinued Flash operations.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$350.00 vs ~$343.67 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $4.381B; +55.5% reported YoY
- GAAP gross margin 57.84%; operating margin 46.70%
- GAAP diluted EPS $4.63; adjusted EPS $4.64
- Operating cash $1.604B; capex $227M; conventional FCF $1.377B
- Cloud revenue $3.868B, or 88.3% of sales
- Q2 issuer outlook: revenue $5.0B–$5.2B; adjusted EPS $5.60–$6.00
- Fair value $350; range $300–$400; High uncertainty
- Twelve-month weighted scenario value $352.50; analytical assumptions
What to watch: Test the next-quarter outlook, cash after reinvestment, tax normalization and diluted shares; a $280 price checkpoint requires an intact operating thesis.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/wdc-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Crown Castle (CCI) Q3 2026 — Reference price $85.28 at October 23, 2026 19:29:38 UTC; this is an intraday snapshot, not a closing price.
Crown Castle’s AFFO per share improved while site rental revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined. We separate the financing and share-count benefits from leasing momentum, reconcile continuing cash after the fiber disposal, and test what the price requires.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — Analyst fair-value anchor ~$87 vs ~$85.28 at the October 23 intraday snapshot.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 site rental revenue $966M, down 4.5%; adjusted EBITDA $673M, down 6.3%.
- Q3 AFFO $530M and $1.24 per share, up 8.2% and 10.7%; issuer non-GAAP measures.
- 9M continuing OCF $1,145M = $1,253M total less $108M discontinued; simple FCF $963M after $182M capex, before separate intangibles.
- FY2026 AFFO/share guidance $4.54–$4.66, midpoint $4.60; the site-rental midpoint increase comes from straight-line rent.
- Analyst fair value $87, range $80–$95, versus $85.28 intraday reference; High uncertainty and 3/5 conviction.
- Analyst twelve-month scenarios $68.80 bear / $91.20 base / $114.40 bull; weighted $89.12, distinct from today’s anchor.
What to watch: Recovering core leasing, consistent continuing cash generation and lower simple leverage; $69.60 conditional entry threshold requires an intact investment thesis.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cci-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Comfort Systems USA (FIX) Q3 2026 — Quarterly operating cash topped $1 billion, while customer funding and capacity spending complicated the cash-conversion story.
Comfort Systems USA reported strong Q3 2026 revenue, profits and backlog. Hudson and Lana examine the customer advances behind the cash inflow, the capital investment needed to deliver the work, and three valuation routes. Price basis: $1,160.41, saved October 23, 2026 at 19:29:35 UTC, intraday; not the session close.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1100.00 vs ~$1160.41 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $3.766B, +53.7% year over year
- Diluted EPS $13.91, +68.6%
- Operating margin 16.58%
- Operating cash $1.010B; capital spending $210.6M
- Conventional FCF $799.5M; issuer FCF $805.6M including asset-sale proceeds
- Backlog $17.815B; technology mix 60.80%
- Fair value $1,100; range $1,000–$1,200; high uncertainty
- Twelve-month weighted scenario value $1,168; distinct from current fair value
What to watch: Watch operating margin, billed-receivable days and free cash flow excluding additional advance funding; an $880 price checkpoint requires the thesis to remain intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fix-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) Q3 2026 — Shares closed at $73.89, down 27.7% from the prior close.
Reported profit accelerated, but net investment absorbed most nine-month operating cash. We test cash conversion and acquisition financing, distinguish the pre-Epiq balance sheet from post-close leverage, and keep mature owner-cash assumptions separate from guidance.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — Analyst base-case value ~$95 vs ~$73.89 at the October 22 close.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $1.204B, up 59.9%; total growth is not an organic-growth measure.
- Q3 GAAP EPS $0.79 versus adjusted EPS $1.46.
- Q3 free cash flow $74.8M; nine-month free cash flow $35.7M, using issuer net capex.
- September 28 net debt $767.5M precedes Epiq's September 30 close; post-close pro forma adjusted net leverage is 2.8x.
- Preliminary FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance $8.10-$8.90 includes closed deals and financing, and excludes pending deals.
- Analyst scenarios: $50 bear / $95 base / $140 bull; weighted value $90.50. High uncertainty; 3/5 conviction.
What to watch: Positive cash conversion, a complete post-acquisition debt bridge and dilution discipline. Our $66.50 entry threshold applies only while the investment thesis remains intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/ttmi-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

SAP SE (SAP) Q3 2026 — Shares rose 3.38% to $240.59 on October 22, 2026.
SAP cloud revenue grew strongly while IFRS cloud gross margin fell. We test whether contracts, delivery costs and capital allocation can support the durable owner cash embedded in the share price.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$220.00 vs ~$240.59 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue €10,270M; cloud €6,668M, +25% constant currency
- IFRS operating profit €2,930M; non-IFRS €3,030M
- IFRS basic EPS €1.96; diluted €1.94; non-IFRS basic €1.89
- IFRS cloud gross margin 73.9% versus 74.6%
- Current cloud backlog €24,144M; +26% constant currency
- Nine-month issuer FCF €7,968M; buybacks and dividends €7,007M
What to watch: Comparable issuer FCF near the approximately €10B objective, stabilizing cloud margin and repeatable collections; or $176 with the underlying cash thesis intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/sap-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Q3 2026 — Shares rose 3.44% to $22.84 on October 22, 2026.
Peacock delivered its second profitable quarter on adjusted EBITDA, yet Comcast free cash flow fell 14.8%. We trace the residential margin tradeoff, required reinvestment and debt claim behind the apparent bargain.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$23.00 vs ~$22.84 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $29,298M; -6.1% reported, +0.5% issuer pro forma year over year
- Adjusted EPS $1.07; GAAP diluted EPS $0.97
- Issuer free cash flow $4,211M, down 14.8%
- Peacock adjusted EBITDA $261M versus a $217M loss
- Residential broadband net losses 144k; residential margin 35.9%
- Net debt $79,770M; Q3 common-program buybacks suspended
What to watch: Residential margin ≥36.0% with residential broadband losses below 100k, durable streaming profit and issuer cash conversion; or $18.40 with the underlying cash thesis intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cmcsa-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Q3 2026 — The saved October 22, 2026 15:00:01 CDT quote was $65.28, before the 15:05 CDT release. This reference is not an earnings reaction.
The infrastructure ramp delivers GAAP operating profit, but wafer funding and working capital consume cash. We test whether growth can reward existing owners after compensation, financing and legal risk.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — Analyst central value ~$44 vs ~$65.28 at the pre-release reference price.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $218.057M; GAAP operating income $30.227M; diluted EPS $0.30; adjusted EPS $0.62
- Operating cash flow −$13.590M; PP&E $5.940M; calculated conventional FCF −$19.530M
- Infrastructure revenue $124.907M; 92.3% of total incremental year-over-year sales
- Unrestricted cash $81.085M; debt principal $165M; net debt $83.915M
- Stock and performance equity compensation $29.002M; 13.300% of sales
- Analyst central value $44; ordinary range $22–$75; weighted value $43.60; high uncertainty
What to watch: Reassess cumulative free cash flow, recurring equity pay, infrastructure breadth, unrestricted liquidity and material Silicon Motion dispute developments.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/mxl-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) Q3 FY2026 — The saved October 22, 2026 13:55:18 CDT intraday quote was $182.91. Release timing is unconfirmed; this is not a closing price or an isolated earnings reaction.
Record profits meet rising gross costs: by-product credits offset 96.1% of the gross cash-cost measure. We test the durability of owner cash and the price paid for future growth.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — Analyst central value ~$130 vs ~$182.91 at the dated intraday quote.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 sales $4,696.6M (+39.1% YoY); attributable net income $1,801.8M; diluted EPS $2.15
- Gross cash cost 245.5 cents/lb; by-product credits 236.0 cents/lb; net cash cost 9.5 cents/lb
- Mined copper 232,396 tonnes: -1.1% YoY; +0.751749% QoQ calculated from Q2's 230,662 tonnes
- Q3 operating cash $2,224.3M less capital investment $515.8M = $1,708.5M calculated free cash flow
- Analyst central value $130; weighted scenario value $136.25; High uncertainty
- El Pilar annual output: 36,000 vs 29,000 unresolved; disputed volume and derived cash excluded from base value
What to watch: Reassess sustainable owner cash, gross cash cost, mined copper and project milestones; exclude unresolved El Pilar volume.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/scco-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.