Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Q1 FY2027 — September 10 regular close: $30.91, before the filing. No verified executed post-print reaction price.
Pricing holds sales as case volume falls and aluminum squeezes profit. We test the recovery against cash quality, concentrated control and three valuation routes.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$28.50 vs ~$30.91 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $330.662M; price/case +7.1%, volume −6.4%
- Gross margin 35.0% vs 38.0%; aluminum estimated 600bps pressure within net 300bps decline
- Operating profit $58.480M; net income $47.004M; diluted EPS $0.50
- CFO $64.850M and FCF $61.779M include working-capital and tax timing
- Cash $107.098M; no funded borrowing; 94M gross share modeling assumption
- Cash added to value $52.581M after $50M reserve and $4.517M existing tax payable
- DCF $25.62 / earnings $31.47 / revenue $30.39; 50/30/20 blend rounds to $28.50
- Bear/base/bull $20/$28.50/$43; 30/50/20 probabilities give $28.85
What to watch: Conditional entry $21.38, approximately 25% below $28.50 base, if demand, margins and liquidity hold. Review by December 15, 2026 (analyst deadline): case decline better than 3%, gross margin at least 36%, cash at least $75M. Adverse: volume below −8%, margin below 33.5%, unexplained cash below $50M, funded debt above $25M or gross shares above 95M.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fizz-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Q4 FY2026 — September 10 close $44.11: +0.4% from the pre-print close after an initial +2.3% release-day gain.
Operating profit recovered, but next year’s cash-flow midpoint is lower. We test distribution efficiency, recurring adjustments, investment and shareholder claims.
THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$49 vs ~$44.11 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $7.642B; GAAP operating profit $69M; net income $35M; diluted EPS $0.57
- Adjusted EBITDA $172M; adjusted EPS $0.69; cyber benefit removed $3M Q4 / $21M FY
- FY2026 FCF $323M; FY2027 guide $275–325M; capital/cloud plan about $300M
- Net debt $1.539B includes finance leases; operating leases $1.459B disclosed separately
- Model shares 62.9M diluted weighted average; published FCF adds back SBC
- EPS / EV-EBITDA / equity FCF routes: $45.50 / $53.55 / $47.69; 30/30/40 blend → $49
- Illustrative $61M SBC cash charge: $38.00 cash route / $44.91 blend; base unchanged
- Scenarios $32/$49/$71 at 30/50/20 → $48.30 weighted; central band $44–54
What to watch: Conditional entry $39.20, 20% below $49 base, if cash, leverage and service hold. Expected December update: watch FCF guide floor below $275M, leverage above 2.5x, sales worse than −3%, or quarterly transformation above $15M. Above $54 without improved fundamentals prompts valuation review.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/unfi-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Designer Brands Inc. (DBI) Q2 FY2026 — DBI closed at $5.99 on September 10, up 14.75% that day; exact release clock and causal attribution not independently established.
Designer Brands has a genuine operating recovery and a complicated tariff windfall. We reconcile the Investor financing, retained refund inside adjusted profit, Topo minority rights, finance leases and potential awards to value the common residual.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$3.50 vs ~$5.99 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $730.631M, −1.2%; Retail comps −2.6%
- Gross margin 50.0% reported / 47.9% issuer adjusted / 45.14% fully ex-refund
- Full COGS recovery $35.536M; issuer removes only $15.336M, retaining $20.200M
- Full ex-refund Q2 EBIT $19.187M vs restated prior $26.143M; H1 $38.057M
- Investor: $18.3M claims sold for $2.2M; Q2 remittance $18.3M includes $16.097M interest
- Adjusted NI $19.228M adds back $2.860M minority attribution; not all public-common profit
- H1 CFO $48.236M; cash capex $22.251M; FCF $25.985M includes rounded $20.7M company CFO refund benefit
- Face debt $425.973M; inferred finance leases $29.462M; cash $51.591M
- Analyst Topo claim $15M and cash reserve $20M; net modeled enterprise claims $438.844M
- 66M deliberately gross potential-share assumption; overlap and vesting caveats, not GAAP diluted shares
- DCF $4.366 / economic NOPAT $3.403 / revenue EV $1.981; 50/30/20 blend $3.59996 rounded $3.50
- Bear/base/bull $1/$3.50/$8; weights 30%/50%/20% give $3.65; conditional entry $2.45
What to watch: Review the next Q3 filing by December 15, 2026, an analytical deadline rather than a confirmed reporting date. Positive tests: Retail comparable sales at least 0%, fully ex-refund gross margin at least 45.5%, and underlying EBIT at least $35M. Adverse tests: comps below −4%, margin below 44%, EBIT below $20M, unexplained cash below $35M, funded face debt plus finance leases above $475M, or potential common claims above 69M. Conditional entry $2.45 is 30% below base, with funding, duty resolution and the retail recovery intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/dbi-q2-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The Lovesac Company (LOVE) Q2 FY2027 — September 10 reference: $14.26, down 11.04%. Exact release time and causal attribution unverified.
A $21M tariff refund lifted profit while underlying margin fell. We value the recurring business after holiday funding, reinvestment and potential share claims.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$14.50 vs ~$14.26 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q2 revenue $161.245M, +0.45% YoY; comparable sales −1.9%
- Q2 GAAP net income $7.429M / EPS $0.51; refund EPS benefit $0.86 rounded
- Q2 underlying gross margin 56.0%, down 40bp; adjusted EBITDA −$1.252M
- Exact COGS refund adjustment $20.024M; interest already removed before EBITDA, no second deduction
- H1 CFO −$11.429M; capex $11.592M; FCF −$23.021M; additional patents $0.612M
- Cash $68.804M, zero funded debt; model reserves $15M, not restricted cash
- Current actual common 14.422288M; disclosed gross claims 16.367156M; 16.5M forward gross model, not GAAP diluted
- FY sales guide $690M–$710M; adjusted EBITDA $31.5M–$35.5M; implied Q4 midpoints $255.559M/$53.798M
- Explicit H2 stub $21.233M UFCF; financial clock anchored August 2; no full-year FY27 cash duplication
- DCF $11.22 / forward revenue $19.79 / economic earnings $15.21; weighted $14.53 rounded $14.50
- Bear/base/bull $8/$14.50/$23; 30%/50%/20% weighted $14.25; high uncertainty
What to watch: Review by December 15, 2026 (not a confirmed reporting date). Positive: Q3 sales at least $150M, comps nonnegative, ex-refund gross margin at least 56.5%. Adverse: sales below $140M, margin below 55%, adjusted EBITDA below −$10M, unexplained cash below $30M or potential shares above 17.5M. Watch the implied Q4 profit hurdle. Conditional entry $10.88, about 25% below base, requires the business case to hold.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/love-q2-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) Q4 FY2026 — LPTH reference quote: $9.68 on September 10. The exact release hour is not independently established, so this quote and the vendor day change are not presented as a post-earnings reaction.
LightPath finishes FY2026 with $110.9M backlog and $93.2M cash. Our Q4 analysis follows acquisition-driven revenue through manufacturing margins, earnout obligations, negative free cash flow and dilution to test the value reaching a common share.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$5.00 vs ~$9.68 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $21.162M, up 73.32% YoY and 10.51% QoQ; gross margin 39.44%
- Q4 GAAP operating loss $4.299M; net loss $4.141M; EPS -$0.06
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA $2.096M; add-backs include $3.402M earnout mark and $1.600M SBC
- FY2026 revenue $71.722M; operating loss $19.654M; net loss $20.546M
- FY2026 CFO -$10.225M; cash capex $6.268M; computed FCF -$16.494M
- Cash $93.205M; net public/private equity proceeds $120.231M; 69.963M actual common shares
- Backlog $110.9M; $85.6M scheduled within 12 months; no verified formal numeric guide
- Valuation uses 81M gross model shares, not a current diluted count, and $86.055M adjusted net cash
- DCF $2.98; forward sales $6.38; economic earnings $5.67; weighted route blend $5.17, rounded to nearest $0.50 gives $5.00
- Very High uncertainty; bear/base/bull $3/$5.00/$10; 30%/50%/20% scenario weights
What to watch: Positive tests: at least $21M quarterly revenue without new acquisitions; at least 38% gross margin; quarterly FCF loss below $3M, then breakeven; reconciled potential dilution within 81M. Negative tests: revenue below $18M, gross margin below 34%, FCF loss above $6M or potential common claims above 84M. Review next filing by November 30, 2026; check the agreed $9M G5 settlement by January 15, 2027. Conditional entry $3.50 requires the business assumptions to remain intact. These are analyst tests, not company guidance.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/lpth-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q1 FY2027 — ORCL closed September 10 at $153.17. The saved after-market trade is $160.97 at 21:57:20 UTC, up 5.09% from that close. This is an early post-print observation, not a completed next-session reaction.
Oracle reports $23.103B operating cash, including $11.363B customer prepayments with a significant financing component. Our Q1 FY2027 analysis follows strong cloud growth through gross capital investment, funding claims, preferred conversion and the cash common owners ultimately retain.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$130.00 vs ~$160.97 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q1 revenue $19.345B, up 29.61%; infrastructure revenue $7.388B, up 120.74%
- Adjusted EPS $1.92 versus saved $1.74 estimate; GAAP EPS $1.56
- GAAP operating income $6.728B; adjusted operating income $8.151B
- Operating cash $23.103B includes $11.363B financing-component customer prepayments
- Gross capex $28.499B; conventional FCF negative $5.396B
- Net cash outlay capex $17.966B is a separate funding measure, not a substitute FCF deduction
- Funded debt $125.337B less cash/investments $37.077B gives $88.260B net funded debt
- Analyst valuation routes $150.37/$145.17/$78.97; weighted blend $130.70 rounded to nearest $10 gives $130
- FY revenue at least $90B; adjusted EPS guide $8.10; current detailed Q1 notes pending
What to watch: Q2 positive checks: revenue at least $21.197B, cloud revenue $13.401B, adjusted margin 42% and interest coverage 4.5x. Warnings: revenue below $20.875B, adjusted margin below 40%, or interest coverage below 4.0x. Track FCF separately from financing-component prepayments: better than −$15B in the ex-prepayment sensitivity supports improvement; below −$20B weakens it. Conditional valuation entry $97.50 with business assumptions intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/orcl-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Q3 FY2026 — ADBE closed the regular September 10 session at $248.83. The saved after-market trade is $244.20 at 20:33:38 UTC, down 1.86% from that close; a full next-session reaction is pending.
Adobe reports one billion monthly active users across creativity and productivity offerings. Our Q3 FY2026 analysis asks how that reach becomes owner value: paid AI conversion, comparable-currency recurring revenue, operating margins, employee compensation and disciplined repurchases.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$300.00 vs ~$244.20 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $6.760B, up 12.89%; adjusted EPS $6.13 versus $6.08 saved vendor estimate
- GAAP operating profit $2.354B, up 8.33%; adjusted operating profit $2.974B, up 7.25%
- GAAP operating margin 34.82%, down 147 basis points; adjusted margin 43.99%, down 232 basis points
- Total ARR $27.500B; computed growth 11.16% against the same-FX prior Q3 base
- Monthly active users 1 billion; AI-first ARR growth above 150%, current absolute amount undisclosed
- Q3 FCF $2.438B; less SBC $539M gives an analytical owner-cash proxy of $1.899B
- Trailing FCF less SBC $8.521B; trailing cash repurchases $9.295B
- Cash and short-term investments $5.639B; funded debt carrying values $6.363B; net debt $724M
What to watch: Reassess positively with at least 10% same-FX ARR growth, 8% RPO growth and $8.5B trailing free cash flow less SBC. Below 8% ARR growth, 5% RPO growth or $7.5B trailing owner-cash proxy would challenge the thesis. Q4 checkpoints: at least $6.825B revenue, 44% adjusted operating margin and 34% GAAP margin. Conditional valuation entry: $225 with the business assumptions intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/adbe-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Q4 FY2026 — CPRT traded at $33.6103 in the September 10 after-hours snapshot saved at 20:34:35 UTC, 9.3% above the $30.75 regular close. This is a thin-session snapshot, not a completed next-day return.
Annual free cash flow improved by $36.4M, but operating cash fell $195.3M. Lower capital spending supplied the difference. We follow Copart’s service fees, geographic profit, buybacks and cash bridge to test whether the auction network’s recovery supports the after-hours price.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$29.00 vs ~$33.6103 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $1,152.439M, up 2.4%; service revenue up 1.4%
- Q4 GAAP operating profit $368.904M, down 10.6%; operating margin 32.0%
- Q4 GAAP diluted EPS $0.35 vs $0.41; diluted average shares 932.140M vs 977.778M
- FY2026 operating cash $1,604.492M, down $195.258M; cash capex $337.363M, down $231.627M
- FY2026 free cash flow $1,267.129M, up $36.369M; cash repurchases $1,632.538M
- Cash, restricted cash and held-to-maturity securities $4,489.802M; redeemable NCI $16.585M
- Our base value $29, method range $26–$32; SELL, moderate conviction, High uncertainty
- DOJ investigation remains unresolved; issuer cannot estimate possible loss
What to watch: Reassess with US service growth above 3%, operating margin recovering above 35%, operating cash moving toward $1.8B, and international profit growing with sales. A lower price with stable fundamentals could also change the call. These are analyst signposts, not issuer guidance.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cprt-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) Q2 FY2027 — SIG rose 23.96% to $102.48 on September 9. The saved September 10 intraday quote is $98.11, down 4.26% from that close.
Signet raised its annual adjusted operating-profit midpoint by $50M while leaving sales guidance unchanged. Tariff refunds and a renewed credit partnership help explain the improvement. Our analysis separates those benefits from cost progress, seasonal cash flow and share repurchases.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$105.00 vs ~$98.11 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q2 revenue $1,528.1M, down 0.5%; adjusted EPS $2.19 versus $1.69 vendor estimate
- Adjusted operating income $107.2M; GAAP operating income $87.5M
- Quarter tariff refund $15M; computed ex-refund adjusted operating income $92.2M, up 8.0%
- FY adjusted operating-income guide $535–$605M; sales guide unchanged at $6.7–$6.9B
- Quarter FCF $30.8M versus $62.3M; first-half FCF negative $138.4M
- Quarter cash $526.8M; funded debt $0; lease liabilities $1,224.4M
- Renewed credit partnership contributes $30–$40M in FY2027 guidance; recurring split undisclosed
What to watch: Reassess positively with at least $570M fiscal-year adjusted operating income, $600M operating cash and positive ex-refund operating growth. Reassess negatively below $450M annual operating cash or above $150M funded debt at year end. Valuation-led entry: $78.75 or below with the thesis intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/sig-q2-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

1-800-FLOWERS.COM (FLWS) Q4 FY2026 — FLWS traded at $2.955 in the September 10 intraday snapshot, down 15.33% from the September 9 close of $3.49. The snapshot is not a closing price.
A roughly $7M tariff refund helped gross profit, yet full-year adjusted EBITDA was only $2.9M. Inventory reductions supported operating cash, free cash flow remained negative, and management is evaluating debt, equity and asset sales. We follow the brands, central costs and financing terms to see what can reach existing shareholders.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$2.00 vs ~$2.955 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $293.118M vs $336.622M, down 12.9% year over year
- Q4 GAAP diluted EPS -$0.82; adjusted diluted EPS -$0.80 vs -$0.69
- FY2026 adjusted EBITDA $2.930M vs $29.166M; approximately $7M Q4 tariff-refund gross-profit benefit
- FY2026 operating cash $18.308M includes $24.344M inventory release; capex $31.280M; FCF -$12.972M
- June 28 cash $11.366M; modeled net principal debt $127.634M, subject to annual-filing confirmation
- FY2027 outlook: mid-single-digit sales decline and $10–15M adjusted EBITDA
- Our base fair value $2.00, range $1.50–$2.50; Very High uncertainty; 64.098483M dated dual-class cover shares
What to watch: Reassess if order declines narrow below 5%, annual free cash flow turns positive with stable inventory, comparable corporate costs fall below $110M, and committed financing terms preserve a viable return for existing shareholders. These are our signposts, not issuer guidance.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/flws-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.