Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

ChargePoint (CHPT) Q2 FY2027 — It is up 74% since the print, on the heaviest volume of the year by a distance.
ChargePoint carries $236.9M of debt and booked $279 thousand of interest expense for the quarter. That is not an error: November's exchange of $328.6M of convertible notes was accounted for as a troubled debt restructuring, which capitalised the whole future coupon into the balance sheet and stopped interest expense being recognised at all through January 2030. The senior loan still pays 12% on $156.5M - about $4.7M a quarter - and it is being settled in newly issued stock until the option runs out.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$8.77 vs ~$9.04 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $116.1M, +17.7% YoY - $6.1M above the top of a guidance range reaffirmed on 31 July
- Adjusted EBITDA loss $4.8M vs $22.1M - but $4.6M of it is a tariff refund, so the underlying loss is $9.4M
- Non-GAAP gross margin 38.4%; 34.4% with the four-point refund removed, against 33.2% a year ago
- Subscription revenue +9.5% to $43.7M, and its gross margin FELL from 61.1% to 58.7%
- Six-month operating cash burn $40.8M vs $39.1M - worse, while the net loss improved by $44.5M; inventory released $40.7M
- Debt $236.9M against $95.7M of cash; interest expense booked $279K on a 12% coupon worth $4.7M a quarter
- Q3 guide $105M-$115M - the midpoint is 5.2% BELOW the quarter just reported
What to watch: the Q3 release in December - non-GAAP gross margin at 34% or better with no tariff refund attached, and nine-month operating cash flow that does not need another inventory release
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 FY2026 — It is down 5.1% since the print - the second quarter running that a beat has been sold.
Broadcom beat on revenue and on earnings, and guided Q4 revenue ABOVE consensus - and the stock still fell. The answer is four lines below the headline: adjusted gross margin went from 78.35% to 74.99%, and the Q4 guide implies about 72.03%.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$367.10 vs ~$348.39 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $29,591M, +85.5% YoY - about $350M above consensus
- Adjusted EPS $3.32 vs $3.22 expected; adjusted operating income $20,095M
- Adjusted gross margin 74.99%, down from 78.35% a year ago
- Q4 guide ~$34,800M revenue (above consensus) at ~66% operating margin
- That implies ~72.03% gross margin - a 6.32 point fall in twelve months
- Incremental operating margin in the guide 55.15% vs the 67.91% just earned
- Free cash flow $13,665M (46.2% of revenue); no buyback; net debt $35.4bn
What to watch: the Q4 release in December - does adjusted operating margin hold 66%, and does cost of revenue stop outgrowing revenue
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Netskope (NTSK) Q2 FY2027 — It opened 12.8% higher, gave the whole gap back, and sits about 3% above the pre-print close.
Netskope beat every line it guided to in June and raised the full year - and quietly cut its full-year free cash flow margin guide from "2% to 4%" to "approximately 2%". The first half burned $87.0M.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$15.01 vs ~$14.16 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $220.5M, +29.2% YoY - above the $213-215M guide
- Non-GAAP operating margin (9)% vs a (14)-(15)% guide
- ARR $899M +27%; dollar-based net retention 114% vs 118%
- H1 free cash flow -$87.0M (-20.6% margin) vs -$2.2M a year ago
- FY27 free cash flow margin guide cut from 2-4% to approximately 2%
- That needs +$104.8M in the back half - 7.2x last year's H2
- Net cash $369.2M; EV/ARR 6.03x at $14.16
What to watch: the Q3 release in early December - does free cash flow turn, and does non-current deferred revenue stop falling
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Aduro Clean Technologies (ADUR) FY2026 — The shares fell 3.5% the next session, from $13.82 to $13.34.
Aduro booked C$167,206 of revenue for the entire fiscal year - thousand, not million - down 27.7%, and nil in the fourth quarter. Interest on its own cash earned C$705,097, more than four times what customers paid. The reported C$26.85m loss is 63.5% non-cash, and the largest piece is a warrant mark that grows when the share price rises. The balance sheet is strong enough for about 19 quarters. The question is not solvency; it is what the price already assumes.
THE CALL: BEARISH (4/5, HIGH) — base-case value ~$3.72 vs ~$13.34 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue for the year ended 31 May 2026: C$167,206 (about US$120,336), DOWN 27.7% from C$231,212. Fourth-quarter revenue was NIL, against C$74,670 a year earlier
- Interest income on its own cash was C$705,097 - more than four times the C$167,206 customers paid
- Net loss C$26,849,013 against C$12,145,790. Loss per share C$0.835 on 32,170,008 weighted average shares. 63.5% of the loss is non-cash: a C$9.98m warrant revaluation, C$6.36m of share-based pay, C$0.70m of depreciation
- In the fourth quarter alone the warrant mark was C$9.29m of a C$12.43m loss - 74.7%. The warrants are struck in US dollars, so under IFRS they are a liability that RISES when the share price rises
- Cash C$38,298,048 at year end, working capital C$38.56m against C$8.03m, no borrowings. A further US$22.2m gross was raised in June 2026, plus C$1.56m of exercises
- Total cash out in FY2026 was C$14.67m (C$9.86m operations, C$4.81m plant and laboratories) - about 19 quarters of runway on the pro-forma balance
- The NGP pilot plant runs at 10 kg/hour - roughly 240 kg a day. It cost C$4,657,181 and completed multi-month steady-state operating campaigns in June 2026
- The Chemelot first-of-a-kind plant has no published capital cost. Saipem was engaged on 19 August 2026 for Early Works, a stage that still includes capital cost refinement, ahead of FEED
- Enterprise value US$426m (US$476.3m equity on 35,704,748 shares, less about US$51m of net cash). At a 20% required return that implies US$1,660m of equity value by FY2031
What to watch: A published capital cost and start-up date for the Chemelot first-of-a-kind plant, or a signed offtake agreement carrying volumes and a price. Neither exists today
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Daktronics (DAKT) Q1 FY2027 — The stock opened $21.50 and touched $21.82, then closed at $19.13 - down 1.2% from the $19.36 prior close - on 2.86 million shares against a roughly 470 thousand average.
Daktronics posted its highest diluted EPS in twelve quarters, 40 cents against 33, on sales up 7.1% and a 10.6% operating margin. It also booked $191.8m of new orders against $234.6m of sales - a book-to-bill of 0.82 against 1.09 in the same quarter last year - and the product backlog fell $44.9m in thirteen weeks to $311.3m. The 10-Q states the mechanism in its own words: backlog fell on the conversion of existing backlog into revenue at a pace that exceeded order intake.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$19.00 vs ~$19.13 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Net sales $234.6m, up 7.1%. Operating income $24.9m, up 7.2%. Net income $19.4m, up 18.0%. Diluted EPS $0.40 against $0.33, and it beat the $0.35 consensus. Highest quarterly EPS in twelve quarters
- New orders $191.8m against $238.5m - down 19.6% - so book-to-bill was 0.82 against 1.09 in the same quarter last year. Daktronics shipped $42.8m more than it booked
- Product backlog $311.3m, down $44.9m in the quarter and $49.0m year on year. Six consecutive quarter-ends above $300m, and this is the smallest of the six. Coverage fell from 1.65 quarters of shipping to 1.33
- Live Events, the largest unit at 37% of sales, shipped $86.4m and booked $47.2m - a 0.55 book-to-bill. Its $45.0m order decline is 96% of the $46.7m company total. Commercial, Transportation and International all booked MORE
- 13 weeks against 14 last year, because FY2026 was a 53-week year. On a per-week basis sales rose 15.4% and orders fell 13.4% - a 28.8-point spread between selling and replacing
- Gross margin 30.5% against 29.7%, and the gain includes tariff refunds the company does not size. Operating expense rose 11.6% on sales up 7.1%. Operating margin was 10.63% against 10.628% - flat
- Pre-tax income rose $3.444m, of which $1.780m - 51.7% - came from below the operating line: interest income and a smaller FX loss. Effective tax rate 24.3% against 25.9%
- Cash $154.6m against $10.6m of gross debt. Net cash $143.9m, 15.6% of market value. Operating cash flow $31.4m, free cash flow $27.5m. $4.4m of buybacks against $10.7m a year ago
- Trailing twelve months: sales $854.3m, operating income $62.5m (7.3% margin), EPS $0.99. At $19.13 that is 19.3x earnings and 12.4x EV/EBIT on a $920m market value and $776m EV
What to watch: Q2 new orders and closing backlog, in the same table of the early-December release. Above $235m of orders confirms the slipped-contract explanation. Below $200m for a second straight quarter, with backlog through $300m, and this was not timing
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Sprinklr (CXM) Q2 FY2027 — The stock fell 8.6% the same session, from $7.60 to $6.95, on 8.2 million shares against a 3.6 million average.
Sprinklr grew subscription revenue 3.4% and the cost of delivering that subscription grew 17.8%, so subscription gross profit went BACKWARDS year on year. Operating expense moved 0.27%. The gross line explains 86% of a $6.3m fall in operating income, and 75% of the fall in gross profit came from professional services - a segment that is 8.8% of revenue and lost 25 cents on every dollar it billed.
THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$5.19 vs ~$6.95 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Total revenue $213.7m, up 0.8%. Subscription $194.8m, up 3.4%. Gross profit $139.2m, DOWN 3.7%. GAAP operating income $10.0m against $16.3m - a 39% fall on a flat top line
- Subscription cost of revenue rose 17.8% to $50.9m while subscription revenue rose 3.4%, so subscription gross profit FELL, $145.3m to $144.0m. Margin 73.9% against 77.1%
- Subscription gross margin by fiscal year: 82.6% (FY2024), 80.4% (FY2025), 76.4% (FY2026), 73.9% now. At the FY2024 margin this quarter earns $17.1m more gross profit
- Professional services: revenue $18.9m, down 19.8%; cost of delivery $23.7m, down 2.4%. A $0.7m gross loss became $4.8m - 75% of the fall in gross profit on 8.8% of revenue
- Operating expense is flat: research, sales and admin went $129.3m to $129.7m, up 0.27%. The gross line explains 86% of the $6.3m operating income decline
- The FY2026 10-K said so in writing: gross margin 'will decline in the near term due to higher data and hosting costs, coupled with higher service delivery costs'
- FY2026 subscription cost carried '$33.3 million' more of third-party data, cloud and network infrastructure. $70.9m of non-cancellable hosting commitments fall due in FY2027
- Non-GAAP operating income $31.3m, down 18.2%, margin 14.6% against 18.0% - but it BEAT the $29.5-30.5m guided in June. Revenue missed its own $214-215m guide
- Guidance since March: non-GAAP operating income $144-146m cut to $139-141m; revenue $869-871m cut to $866.5-868.5m. Profit moved $5.0m, revenue $2.5m
- $452.9m cash and securities, no borrowings. $200m buyback authorised March 2026, $125.8m executed in H1. Diluted shares down 9.6% to 237.8m
- Free cash flow $78.9m in the half against $110.5m, down 28%. Total RPO grew 11% to $1.03bn while revenue grew 1% - the strongest argument against our call
- Our model: FY2027 revenue $868m, gross margin held at 65.5%, opex $527m, 9% discount rate. Bear $3.10, base $4.96, bull $8.13, weighted 30/45/25 = $5.19
What to watch: Subscription gross margin back above 76% - the FY2026 level - for two consecutive quarters, or professional services back to breakeven. The Q3 release in early December carries both
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Brown-Forman (BFB) Q1 FY2027 — The stock rose 3.9% the same session, from $26.36 to $27.38, on 4.0 million shares against a 2.9 million average.
Brown-Forman grew organic operating income 4% and reaffirmed its full-year outlook - an outlook that calls for organic operating income to FALL 3% to 5%. Q1 is about a quarter of the year's profit, so the remaining nine months have to fall roughly 5% to 8%: a 9 to 12 point deceleration the company printed without ever writing down. The shares rose on the reaffirmation.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$26.28 vs ~$27.38 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Net sales $911m, down 1% reported and organic. Gross margin EXPANDED 40bp to 60.2%, but operating margin fell 50bp to 27.7% and operating income fell $8m to $252m
- Organic operating income +4% against a REAFFIRMED full-year guide of -3% to -5%. On Q1's 23-26% share of the year, the remaining nine months must fall about 5% to 8%
- Diluted EPS $0.38, up 6%, entirely from below the operating line: non-operating postretirement expense fell $19m to $1m and diluted shares fell 2.8% to 459.5m
- Advertising fell 5% to $114m on what the release calls 'the timing of spend' - roughly 2.5 of the 4 points of organic profit growth is a cost deferred, not saved. SG&A +4%
- The prior-year base was flattered about $6m net: an $18m substitution drawback benefit (all claims now collected) against a $12m restructuring charge that did not repeat
- Depletions +8% and shipments +7% while net sales fell 1% - revenue per case down about 8.3% on our arithmetic. Mix, not destocking: shipments did not fall below depletions
- Brand write-downs three years running and compounding: $7m FY2024, $47m FY2025, $132m FY2026 - 13% of that year's $1,001m operating income
- DUAL CLASS: 168.5m voting A at $27.92 plus 290.4m non-voting B at $27.38 is $12,655m of equity, not the $12,768m one price on a blended count gives. Net debt $2,140m
- Free cash flow $161m, but $28m of the $32m gain is capex cut to $12m. CEO Lawson Whiting is retiring on appointment of a successor; none named
- Owner-earnings DCF: bear $15.79 (7.5% rate), base $25.34 (7.0%), bull $40.54 (6.5%), weighted 30/45/25 to $26.28. Half a point of discount rate moves the base case 11%
What to watch: Organic operating income in the October quarter, filed in early December, comes in flat or better - which would mean the reaffirmed full-year decline cannot happen without a collapse in the back half
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Dell Technologies (DELL) Q2 FY2027 — The stock rose 15.8% the next session, from $425.00 to $492.20, on 6.2x normal volume.
Dell grew revenue 58% to $46.97bn, trebled non-GAAP EPS to $7.04 against a $4.91 Street bar, expanded every margin it reports, and added $25bn to its own full-year guide. Free cash flow still fell 47%, to $986m. The record $8,149m of 'adjusted free cash flow' in the headline is that $986m plus $6,667m of financing receivables - money owed by customers for equipment Dell financed itself.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$436 vs ~$492.20 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $46,971m (+58%), non-GAAP EPS $7.04 (+203%), GAAP EPS $6.34 (+273%). Beat its own 28 May guide by 5.6% on revenue and 46.7% on EPS - the bar was RAISED first, not cut
- Free cash flow $986m, DOWN 47% year over year, while reported net income rose 255% to $4,133m. Operating cash flow fell 13% to $2,225m
- The record $8,149m 'adjusted free cash flow' is $986m plus $6,667m of financing receivables plus $496m of equipment under operating leases - 88% of it is the add-back (FY2026: 26%)
- Financing receivables went from $13,950m at 1 May to $20,430m at 31 Jul - $6,480m in ONE quarter, against $2,858m across the SEVEN quarters before it
- We tested AI margin dilution and it is NOT present: gross margin 18.3% to 20.9%, non-GAAP operating margin 7.7% to 12.6%, ISG segment margin 8.8% to 15.0%
- ISG revenue $31,782m (+89%); AI-optimised servers $16,401m (+100%); traditional servers and networking $10,531m (+122%); storage $4,850m (+26%); CSG $15,034m (+20%)
- FY2027 revenue guide: $140.0bn on 26 Feb, $167.0bn on 28 May, $192.0bn now. Non-GAAP EPS guide $12.90, then $17.90, then $25.50
- AI orders $60.9bn booked in the quarter (April: $24.4bn) but recognised AI revenue only went $16.1bn to $16.4bn; backlog $95bn, management's figure
- Balance sheet: inventory $10,437m to $21,290m, payables $33,630m to $49,723m, book equity NEGATIVE $1,427m, total debt $34,466m against $11,569m cash
- Reverse DCF: the $492.20 close needs about $21.0bn of steady-state free cash flow - 2.5x what this year is tracking and 1.26x the whole year's guided non-GAAP profit
- Twelve post-print targets, all twelve raised, nine buy-equivalent and not one sell. Mean $586, range $499 (Morgan Stanley) to $735 (Melius). We are 26% below
What to watch: The October-quarter financing receivable balance adds less than about $2bn while AI revenue keeps growing - OR two consecutive quarters print more than $4bn of PLAIN free cash flow, putting the year near $12bn
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

FuelCell Energy (FCEL) Q3 FY2026 — The stock fell 15.7% on the print, from $17.08 to $14.40, on 1.9x average volume.
FuelCell Energy tripled its order book to $3.65bn and signed its first data-centre power agreement - and the stock lost about a sixth of its value in a single session. The reason is four lines into the cost statement: product revenue of $18.0m against product cost of revenues of $37.1m, a product gross margin of -106.1%. Note 7 of the 10-Q explains it - a $17.0m charge, $4.0m writing inventory to net realisable value and $13.0m for losses on firm purchase commitments, booked because contractual pricing under the Fit Energy agreement sits below what it costs to manufacture. That charge covers Phase 0 alone: 30 MW of a 380 MW agreement. Strip it out and the product margin is -11.7%, against -11.9% a year ago. Meanwhile $2.35bn of the new backlog is 'Awarded Capacity' the customer may take at its sole option, and FuelCell handed that customer warrants over 12,000,000 shares with a $141.6m grant-date fair value that will come back out as a reduction of revenue. Our call is AVOID, conviction 4/5, fair value $8.30.
THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, HIGH) — base-case value ~$8.3 vs ~$14.4 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $33.0m, down 29% YoY and about 15% below the $38.8m consensus
- Loss per share $(0.64) against a $(0.41) bar - roughly 56% wider than expected
- Gross loss $(24.5)m vs $(5.1)m - gross margin -74.2% against -11.0% a year ago
- Product revenue $18.0m against product cost of revenues $37.1m: product margin -106.1%
- Note 7 charge $17.0m = $4.0m inventory NRV + $13.0m losses on firm purchase commitments
- Ex-charge product gross margin -11.7%, versus -11.9% a year earlier - no improvement
- 14th consecutive quarter without a gross profit; the last was the quarter ended 31 Jan 2023
- Adjusted EBITDA $(36.7)m vs $(16.4)m - 124% worse, while the operating loss halved
- Backlog $3.65bn total, but $2.35bn is customer-optional Awarded Capacity, not orders
- Warrants over 12,000,000 shares at $26.44 issued to the customer; $141.6m grant-date fair value
- Cash $658.1m unrestricted; total debt $153.6m; 79,954,196 shares on the 10-Q cover
- Shares outstanding +73.5% in nine months, from 46,075,237 to 79,954,196
- Annualised production rate 37.1 MW against a Torrington plant planned for 500 MW
What to watch: product gross margin turns positive in any single quarter while product revenue is growing, OR Fit elects Phase 1 and the non-refundable deposit is actually received
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Q4 FY2026 — The stock fell 9.3% the next session, from $362.09 to $328.48.
Palo Alto beat every line of its own guidance, grew revenue 34.5% to $3.41bn, and guided fiscal 2027 above consensus on both revenue and earnings - and the shares still fell 9.3%. The reason sits in a table the company published three months earlier: on a pro forma basis, as though it had always owned CyberArk and Chronosphere, the combined business grows about 16%, not 34.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$231 vs ~$328.48 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $3,410m (+34.5%) and adjusted EPS $1.02 - both above the TOP of the 2 June guide ($3.345-3.355bn, $0.96-0.98). The bar was not lowered first; we checked
- The company's own pro forma table (April 10-Q, Note 7) puts combined growth at +16.1% for the quarter and +17.4% for nine months
- The two quarters that closed before either deal grew +15.7% and +14.9%; the two after grew +31.2% and +34.5%
- FY2027 guide: revenue +23.3% but adjusted EPS +8.7% - diluted shares go from 764m to about 845m (+10.7%)
- Adjusted operating margin 28.76% (FY25) to 29.23% (FY26) to 29.50% guided - 74bp in three years on 54% more revenue
- GAAP: Q4 operating income $172m vs $497m, a net LOSS of $282m (-$0.35); FY2026 GAAP EPS $0.40 vs $1.60
- Cash is the strong part: operating cash flow $4,553m, adjusted free cash flow $4,414m (38.4% margin), net cash $6,132m
- But adjusted FCF is struck before $1,712m of share-based compensation (14.9% of revenue) - owner earnings about $2,702m
- CyberArk closed 11 Feb 2026 for $21.06bn, $18.49bn of it in 112 million NEW shares; Chronosphere closed 29 Jan for $2.95bn cash
- Goodwill $22,010m plus intangibles $7,017m is 59.9% of a $48,460m balance sheet; tangible book value is negative $1,535m
- Reverse DCF: the $328.48 close needs about 24.7% a year of owner-earnings growth for five years; the Street's $397 mean needs 28.4%
What to watch: July-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grows more than 20% year over year - the first quarter with CyberArk fully inside both years - OR fiscal 2028 is guided to grow adjusted EPS faster than 18% on a share count that has stopped rising
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.