Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Materialise (MTLS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to 30 June, filed in EUR): revenue EUR70.1M, +8.1% YoY; adjusted EBIT EUR3.9M, +26.9%; net profit EUR3.3M, EUR0.06 per ordinary share and per ADS. But the REPORTED operating result was EUR2.8M against EUR2.7M - essentially unchanged. Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance RAISED to EUR12-14M; revenue guidance reaffirmed at EUR273-283M. The 6-K landed pre-market on 27 Aug: +11.24% on 8.2x median volume, then 53% handed back the next session to close at $7.02.
One of Materialise's three businesses earned more money last half than the entire company did. Materialise Medical produced EUR20.8M of segment adjusted EBITDA in the six months to 30 June; the whole company kept EUR17.6M - 118%, on 51% of group revenue. It is not a quarter: the same ratio was 133% across 2025 and 113% across 2024. Software, the highest-quality revenue in the group, is the only segment shrinking. Manufacturing is a third of revenue and lost EUR6.2M at the segment operating line.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, ONE SEGMENT IS THE COMPANY, AND NOTHING FORCES ANYONE TO SEPARATE IT) — base-case value ~$7.21 vs ~$7.02 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $7.21 vs the $7.02 close of 28 August (+2.7%). Bear $6.01 (discounted cash flow), base $7.40 (group at 8.5x guided adjusted EBITDA), bull $8.44 (sum of the parts), weighted 40/25/35. One dated Street target: Cantor Fitzgerald, Overweight, $10.00, 20 February 2026, set with the ADS at $5.48.
- THE SPINE - segment adjusted EBIT, June half: Medical +EUR17.4M, Software +EUR0.8M, Manufacturing -EUR6.2M, unallocated corporate -EUR5.6M. Those four sum to the EUR6.4M of consolidated adjusted EBIT Materialise reported.
- THREE YEARS, NOT ONE QUARTER: Medical was 133% of group adjusted EBITDA across 2025 and 113% across 2024. Two-year segment revenue: Medical EUR116.4M to EUR134.2M, Manufacturing EUR106.5M to EUR92.5M, Software EUR43.9M to EUR40.9M. Group revenue barely moved.
- BALANCE SHEET AND CAPEX: EUR74.2M of NET CASH, a fifth of the $407.1M market value. But depreciation was EUR11.3M in the half against EUR3.4M of capital spending - 0.31x.
- VENDOR ERRORS NAMED ON-SLIDE: FMP's FY2025 revenue is 3.9% BELOW the filed figure; its earnings feed carries a PHANTOM 23 July 2026 print; its market cap is 1.0% high. ONE ADS IS ONE ORDINARY SHARE, proved from note 6.2.
What to watch: UP: the medical share of group adjusted EBITDA falling below 100%; two consecutive periods of software revenue GROWTH; any announced separation or disposal of a segment. DOWN: capital spending staying below depreciation; manufacturing losses widening again; the full-year revenue guide being cut in November.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

JinkoSolar (JKS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to 30 June): revenue RMB12.36BN / $1,821.2M, -31.3% YoY on module shipments of 15,961MW, -34.4%; gross margin 4.2% from 8.3% in Q1; operating expenses $287.3M against $75.6M of gross profit, so a $211.7M loss from operations. Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders $102.8M, or $1.94 per ADS - but the company's own ADJUSTED loss is $134.2M, 31% BIGGER. Full-year shipment guidance cut from 75-85GW to 60-70GW. The 6-K landed pre-market on 26 Aug: the ADSs closed -11.87% and made a fresh 12-month closing low the next session.
Making and selling solar modules lost JinkoSolar $211.7M in the June quarter. The loss reported to the owners of the ADSs was $102.8M - less than half of it. Both figures are correct and both are printed on the same filed statement of operations. The $108.9M in between is five non-operating items: government grants of $29.7M, the gain on selling 75.1% of the US business ($34.9M), a fair-value mark on a portfolio of private investments ($54.6M), an income tax benefit ($24.1M), and $84.0M of the group loss carried by the MINORITY holders of the majority-owned operating subsidiary. Not one of them is a solar module, and on the same morning the company cut its full-year shipment guidance by 15GW and made its head of strategic investment the chief executive.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A LEVERED CYCLICAL WHOSE REPORTED LOSS IS HALF THE OPERATING ONE) — base-case value ~$9.90 vs ~$13.54 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $9.90 vs the $13.54 close of 28 August (-26.9%). Bear $4.94, base $8.89, bull $20.86, weighted 35/45/20. Below both live Street targets: Goldman Sachs cut to $11.00 and Roth Capital to $16.00, both on 27 August. Their average of $13.50 is 4 cents UNDER the last close.
- THE BRIDGE: loss from operations $211.7M; net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders $102.8M; ratio 2.06x, against 1.27x in the March quarter. The five items in between total $227.3M of help against $118.4M of drags - net interest $40.3M, an exchange loss on foreign-currency debt of $48.0M, and smaller items.
- THE UNIT ECONOMICS: 0.47 cents of gross profit per watt shipped against 1.80 cents of operating cost per watt - 3.8x. A quarter earlier the gross line was 1.10 cents. Gross margin must reach ~15.8% to cover the overhead; it is 4.2%, an 11.6-point gap that WIDENED from 7.7 points a year ago.
- THE BALANCE SHEET: $6,617M of total interest-bearing debt less $2,497M of cash = $4,121M of net debt, 5.8x the $716M market value. Cash fell $865M in the quarter (from $3,362M at 31 March) while a $1.50/ADS dividend (~$79M) was declared. Equity attributable to JinkoSolar is $2,152M - 12.3% of $17.5BN of assets. Book value $40.72 an ADS; the tape pays 0.33x book.
- TWO VENDOR ERRORS NAMED ON-SLIDE: (1) FMP's epsActual of -2.53 is the company's ADJUSTED loss per ADS, not the filed GAAP -1.94. (2) FMP's market cap of $177.3M is 75% TOO LOW - it carries 13.09M shares where the release prints 211,435,343 weighted ordinary shares, and ONE ADS REPRESENTS FOUR ORDINARY SHARES. The correction makes the stock DEARER, not cheaper.
What to watch: DOWN (our case): gross profit per watt staying under 1.80 cents; a second cut to the 60-70GW guide in November; net debt holding above $4BN against a sub-$1BN equity. UP (what would change our mind): two consecutive quarters of gross profit per watt above 1.80 cents; the January 2027 efficiency standard lifting realised prices on 40GW of TOPCon 3.0 capacity; net debt falling toward the equity value.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Gaotu Techedu (GOTU) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to 30 June): net revenues RMB1,670.1M / $246.1M, +20.2% YoY, accelerating from +13.2% in Q1; gross margin 66.5%; operating expenses $185.8M against $163.7M of gross profit, so a $22.1M operating loss, narrowed from $35.6M. Net loss $20.0M, RMB0.57 (-$0.09) per ADS. Operating cash inflow $126.9M, +46.3% - but the six-month figure is $4.8M, -70.6%. The 6-K landed pre-market on 27 Aug: the ADSs gapped +6.9%, faded to $1.74, closed +5.20%, and added +3.30% the next session.
Gaotu holds $588.5M of cash, restricted cash and investments against a market value of $441.9M. On a screen that is a negative enterprise value. But $384.9M of that cash is deferred revenue - tuition already collected for lessons that have not been taught - and the filed shareholders' equity of $154.2M has already netted it off for you. Fund the cost of teaching every lesson already sold, at the filed 33.5% cost ratio, and $380.7M survives: $1.62 an ADS, 86% of the share price. That leaves the market paying about $61.2M for a business turning over $1.06BN at a 66.5% gross margin, still growing 20%.
THE CALL: SPEC BUY (3/5, A CASH FLOOR UNDER A BUSINESS THAT STILL LOSES MONEY) — base-case value ~$2.35 vs ~$1.88 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: SPEC BUY 3/5, fair value $2.35 vs the $1.88 close of 28 August (+25.1%). Bear $0.96, base $2.34, bull $4.04, weighted 30/45/25. Street: 10 ratings, consensus Hold, and NO live target - the newest dated note from a named firm is Citigroup's $5.81 of 5 August 2024, 754 days stale.
- THE FLOOR: net cash $509.6M ($588.5M less $78.9M of borrowings) against a $441.9M market value. Deducting the whole $384.9M deferred revenue balance leaves $124.7M ($0.53 an ADS); deducting only the 33.5% cost of delivering it leaves $380.7M ($1.62 an ADS, 86% of the price). Filed shareholders' equity is $154.2M.
- THE SPINE: operating cash inflow was $126.9M (+46.3%) while deferred revenue rose $120.6M over the same three months - 95% of it. The March quarter was a $122.1M OUTFLOW while deferred revenue fell $114.0M - 93% of it. Both quarters together: $4.8M against $16.4M, -70.6%. Six months of it moved the cash pile $3.0M.
- THE ADS RATIO: three ADSs represent two ordinary shares. 156,703,879 ordinary shares outstanding is 235.1M ADSs, so the market value is $441.9M - not the $682.0M published, which uses 362.7M ADSs and is 54% too high. Corroborated independently by the FY2025 20-F depositary disclosure.
- THE QUARTER: revenue $246.1M (+20.2%), gross margin 66.5%, operating loss $22.1M vs $35.6M. Operating costs fell to 75.5% of revenue from 83.4% - a 7.9 point move that halved the gap to operating break-even, from 17.4 points to 9.0. Selling costs alone were $134.6M, 82.2% of gross profit.
- WHERE WE DISAGREE: guided Q3 revenue, this quarter's gross margin and costs grown at the +8.8% they actually grew give a FY2026 operating LOSS of $46.7M. The vendor consensus has a $5.3M operating PROFIT, on four revenue analysts and one earnings analyst. We agree on revenue to within 0.6%. Our model crosses into profit in 2028.
What to watch: UP: March-quarter gross billings above last March's $146.8M; the operating cost ratio falling below 66.5% of revenue; deferred revenue continuing to grow year on year. DOWN: two consecutive quarters of deferred revenue falling year on year; refunds rising inside gross billings; the cost ratio back above 83%.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Lantronix (LTRX) Q4 FY2026 — Fiscal Q4 FY2026 (three months to 30 June): revenue $31.2M, +8.0% YoY and +3.2% QoQ; gross margin 43.7% from 40.0%; operating loss $0.4M from $3.1M. GAAP EPS -$0.01; non-GAAP EPS $0.04 against a $0.03 bar. FULL YEAR: revenue $120.9M, DOWN 1.6% on $122.9M.
A brand new unmanned systems line billed $12.6M in fiscal 2026, from what the release calls a minimal contribution the year before. In the same twelve months one customer went from just over $11M of revenue to zero - a sentence that appears only in the 10-K, never in the press release. The two very nearly cancel, which is why group revenue reads -1.6%. Take the new line out and $108.3M against $122.9M is -11.9%.
THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A REAL REPAIR, PAID FOR BY THE OWNERS) — base-case value ~$4.52 vs ~$5.37 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $4.52 vs the $5.37 close of 28 August (-15.9%). Bear $3.57, base $5.32, bull $8.35, weighted 35/30/35. Street: 6 analysts, 6 Buys, no Hold or Sell; four targets average $10.00, +86% above the tape and +121% above us - and not one published since the print.
- THE SUBSTITUTION: $12.6M of unmanned systems revenue arrived (press release, three times) and just over $11M of one customer left (10-K Item 7, once). Excluding the new line, fiscal 2026 was $108.3M vs $122.9M = -11.9%, against a reported -1.6%.
- THE SAME CAUSE TWICE: the 10-K attributes the 171bp gross margin gain primarily to the absence of that customer's lower-margin revenue, not to operating improvement.
- THE MIX: Embedded IoT +15.6% to $53.6M, IoT Systems -15.2% to $58.3M, Software & Services +15.5% to $9.0M. Regionally Americas +20.2% while EMEA -30.2% and APJ -31.3% - $16.2M of annual revenue left the rest of the world.
- THE BALANCE SHEET WAS BOUGHT: cash $20.1M to $60.5M and debt $11.8M to zero, funded by $44.9M of net share issuance. Shares 39.10M to 46.59M, +19.2%. Strip the raise and cash FALLS $4.5M. About $17M of the ATM remains open.
- IN FAIRNESS: free cash flow was a genuine $9.3M (7.7% of revenue) - though $6.3M of it is a share-based pay add-back. Core opex held flat. 30+ unmanned engagements from ~10, NDAA-compliant, partners include Swarmer, DoD Solution and AVT Australia (CACI).
- GUIDANCE: Q1 FY2027 revenue $31-33M = +7.4% at the midpoint against the year-ago quarter, NOT double digit. The full-year double-digit promise then needs +10.8% from the three quarters after it, and unmanned to reach $20-27M against $12.6M.
- CONSENSUS DEFECT: the vendor's fiscal-2027 average net income of $9.0M over an average EPS of $0.234 solves to 38.4M shares. The company filed 46.7M on its 10-K cover. That $9.0M over the real count is $0.19, not $0.23.
What to watch: UP: the September-quarter unmanned number tracking to management's 15-20% of fiscal 2027 revenue (about $5M in Q1); IoT Systems and the international regions stabilising. DOWN: the remaining $17M at-the-market programme being drawn near this price; the memory cost inflation the 10-K flags eating the margin gain; another concentrated customer leaving.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to 30 June): net revenues $1,207.7M, -28.7% YoY and +12.0% QoQ, at the high end of the $1.0-1.2BN guide; gross margin 13.9%, inside the 13-15% guide; operating expenses $239.5M against $168.5M of gross profit, so a $71.1M operating loss. Loss attributable $76.9M, -$1.40 a share. Storage shipments 3.7 GWh, +73% YoY, ahead of a 2.8-3.2 GWh guide. On the print (27 Aug) the stock gapped -3.3%, traded to $12.92 and closed +0.79% at $13.98; the NEXT session closed -6.01% at $13.14, a settled two-day reaction of -5.26%.
The filed loss per share is -$1.40. The filed loss over the filed share count is -$1.13. The $18.2M in between is a paid-in-kind dividend on Recurrent Energy's redeemable preferred, and it appears on no line of the income statement, no line of the segment table and no line of the cash flow. It reconciles exactly to the filed half-year figure, it grew 45% in a year, and because it is paid in kind it compounds - $73M a year accruing ahead of the common, on an $892M equity.
THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, A CHEAP ASSET BASE THAT EARNS NOTHING) — base-case value ~$12.55 vs ~$13.14 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 2/5, fair value $12.55 vs the $13.14 close of 28 August (-4.5%). Bear $5.24, base $13.36, bull $21.48, weighted 30/50/20. Street: 33 analysts, consensus Buy, but ONE live target - Mizuho $18.00 on 15 June, +37% above the tape and +43% above us.
- THE LINE ON NO LINE: -$76.9M over 67,907,507 shares is -$1.13. The company filed -$1.40. The $18.2M residual is a paid-in-kind preferred dividend at Recurrent Energy ($12.6M a year ago, $16.1M last quarter). Q1+Q2 residuals reconcile to the filed half-year figure within $0.05M.
- THE SPINE: storage shipped 3.7 GWh (+73% YoY) and billed $425.9M against $432.4M a year ago - about $115/kWh from about $202/kWh, -43% per unit. Modules did the opposite: 3.1 GW (-60%) at about $0.19/W from $0.13, +44% per unit.
- THE STACK: $892M of equity against $7.1BN of debt - 11.2% of the enterprise. Book value $40.57 a share, so the tape pays 0.32x. Interest took 38% of gross profit against 9% a year ago. Q3 guide $1.3-1.5BN at 13.5-15.5% implies an operating loss at EVERY point; break-even needs a 20.2% gross margin.
What to watch: UP: storage revenue per GWh printing back above ~$130/kWh; the deferred Recurrent project sales closing in H2; gross margin recovering toward the 25.1% of one quarter ago. DOWN: another quarter at ~14% gross margin; the preferred accrual growing again off a larger base; total debt drawn past $7.1BN.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Hafnia Limited (HAFN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 June 2026): net profit $277.8M, EPS $0.56 against a $0.544 bar, up from $0.15 a year ago. TCE income $372.9M from $231.2M; adjusted EBITDA $287.3M from $134.2M. Fleet TCE $44,093/day. Dividend $0.5003 a share, a 90% payout. HAFN closed at $8.47, up 2.17% on the BMO print.
Hafnia's Q2 2026 was its best quarter since 2022 - $277.8M of net profit, $0.56 a share, and a 90% payout worth $0.5003 that the CEO letter describes as an annualised yield of roughly 21%. Nine pages later, in the same filing, the coverage table says 80% of Q3 earning days are ALREADY CONTRACTED at $30,716 a day against the $44,093 that produced the record - minus 30.3%, in signed contracts rather than a forecast. And 17% of 2027 is fixed at $25,742, all of it time-charter-out, below the $26,041 and $27,347 this fleet earned in Q3 and Q4 2025 before the Gulf conflict began.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE RECORD IS REAL, THE FORWARD BOOK IS 30% LOWER) — base-case value ~$7.95 vs ~$8.47 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$7.95 vs the $8.47 close (-5.9%). Bear $6.51, base $7.65, bull $10.05. Street: Buy, $8.78 average (Danske NOK 91, Clarksons NOK 90, DNB Carnegie NOK 81, all May 2026, converted at 9.95) - we are 9% below.
- THE QUARTER: EPS $0.56 vs $0.544 bar. Net profit $277.8M incl. $39.3M vessel-sale gains and $9.9M TORM dividend income; core vessel earnings ~$228.6M ($0.46/sh). RoE 44.6% annualised. Net LTV 13.0% from 20.2%.
- THE FORWARD BOOK: Q3 80% fixed at $30,716/day (-30.3%); H2 53% at $28,917; 2027 17% at $25,742, all time-charter. NAV $8.89/sh, so HAFN trades at 0.95x a peak NAV. Break-even $16,055/day.
What to watch: UP: a November coverage table that fixes Q4 2026 and 2027 above $30,000 a day; unfixed Q3/Q4 days beating the book while LR1 pool earnings run near $74,446. DOWN: a 2027 book that extends at or below $25,742; a Q3 dividend near $0.23 as the 90% payout applies to a halved profit; a durable Hormuz reopening.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

IREN Limited (IREN) Q4 FY2026 — FY2026 (year ended 30 June 2026): revenue $707.0M, up 41.1%; AI Cloud revenue $16.4M to $128.8M; Adjusted EBITDA $269.7M to $245.7M, DOWN 8.9%; net loss $702.6M against $86.9M last year; diluted loss per share $2.22 on 316.1M shares. Reported after the close on 27 August; the stock fell 12.5% on 28 August, $40.53 to $35.45, on 88.7M shares, 2.1x the 60-day median.
Everyone is arguing about the headline loss per share. What actually matters is Note 4 of the 10-K, which the press release never mentions. IREN has $16.6bn of contracted revenue. Only $5.1bn is services backlog under ASC 606. The other $11.4bn - 69% of the book - is the contracted value of LEASE arrangements under ASC 842, and the 10-K states that no lease revenue was recognised in any period presented. IREN's flagship contract is, in accounting terms, an equipment lease. The market is paying a cloud multiple for it.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE DEMAND IS REAL, THE MULTIPLE IS NOT) — base-case value ~$30.0 vs ~$35.45 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$30.00 against the $35.45 reaction close, about 15% below. Bear $18.43, base $29.61, bull $42.47, probability-weighted 25/50/25 to $30.03. We accept the Street's own FY2028 revenue of $6.31bn; the disagreement is the margin the book earns and the multiple a two-thirds-leased book deserves. Street: Buy, 17-analyst consensus target $78.19.
- THE OPERATING LEVERAGE WENT BACKWARDS: revenue rose $206M in FY2026 while Adjusted EBITDA FELL $24M, an incremental margin of MINUS 11.7%. Margin 53.8% to 34.8% for the year, and 41.1% to 14.0% in the June quarter. SG&A tripled, $136.5M to $449.1M. Stock-based compensation of $205.0M is 83% of the entire $245.7M of Adjusted EBITDA and is added back to reach it.
- THE CAPEX DENOMINATOR: every reassurance is scoped to GPU capex only. Footnote 3 defines the roughly two-year payback as GPU capital expenditure divided by contracted revenue less direct costs. But the FY2026 cash flow shows $2,998.0M of property, plant and equipment NET of computer hardware against $1,335.1M of computer hardware - $2.25 of site for every $1.00 of compute. The financings fund the smaller half.
What to watch: UP: the first quarter that recognises real lease revenue at a margin near the 86.9% AI Cloud gross line. Horizon 1 was delivered to and accepted by Microsoft in August 2026, so fiscal Q1 2027 is the first clean read on what a delivered hall actually earns. DOWN: another quarter of Adjusted EBITDA margin near the 14.0% posted in the June quarter, or more equity sold ahead of signed contracts.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Titan Machinery (TITN) Q2 FY2027 — Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended 31 July 2026): revenue $496.4M, down 9.2%, ahead of a $483.8M consensus; diluted loss per share $0.40 against a three-analyst bar of $0.36. Gross margin 18.6%, up 148bps. Adjusted EBITDA $4.6M from $5.6M. Inventory down 18.3% year on year to $931.5M; floorplan payable down 26.8% to $623.6M; floorplan interest halved to $3.7M. FY2027 profitability guidance reaffirmed at an adjusted loss of $1.25-$1.75. The stock fell 2.07% to $18.42.
Titan spent two years promising to clear excess machines off its lots, and it delivered: inventory fell 18.3% year on year against a 9.2% revenue decline, floorplan debt fell 26.8% and floorplan interest was cut in half. The pre-tax loss got wider anyway, $9.2M against $8.2M. The reason is dealer absorption - recurring parts, service and rental gross profit as a share of operating expenses - which fell 578bps to 68.5%, a four-year low, in the very quarter equipment margin recovered.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE BALANCE SHEET HEALED, THE INCOME STATEMENT DID NOT) — base-case value ~$17.0 vs ~$18.42 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$17.00 vs the $18.42 reaction close (-7.7%). Bear $9.12, base $17.77, bull $23.78. Street: Buy, $23.00 consensus (Northland $25, Baird $17) - but no analyst has published since 15 June 2026.
- THE DESTOCK IS REAL: inventory $1.14bn to $931.5M (-18.3%) against revenue -9.2%, so stock cleared roughly twice as fast as sales fell. Floorplan payable $852.2M to $623.6M. Floorplan interest $6.8M to $3.7M. Equipment gross margin 6.61% to 8.52%, up 192bps.
- ABSORPTION IS THE PROBLEM: recurring gross profit $68.8M to $64.4M (-6.4%) while operating expense rose 1.5% on 9.2% less revenue. Absorption 76.7% / 72.9% / 74.2% / 68.5% across four fiscal Q2s. One point is worth ~$3.8M pre-tax, ~12c of EPS.
What to watch: UP: recurring gross profit growing year on year with operating expense flat, in both the October and January quarters - roughly $0.70 a share of earnings power; a fiscal Q3 that clears last year's $0.05; equipment margin holding above 11.3%. DOWN: a third consecutive year of operating expense rising in dollars on falling revenue; Europe deteriorating past the new down 30-40% outlook; absorption printing below 68%.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Malibu Boats (MBUU) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended 30 June 2026): net sales $295.5M, up 42.7%; adjusted EPS $0.92 vs a $0.779 consensus; adjusted EBITDA $33.9M, up 72.7%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.37. Full-year net sales $914.6M, up 13.3%, but FY26 gross margin fell 180bps to 16.0%, adjusted EBITDA fell 1.1% and GAAP EPS fell to $0.09 from $0.76. FY2027 guidance: net sales $1.08-1.12bn, adjusted EBITDA $101-109M. The stock rose 8.11% to $28.80.
Malibu bought Finnish builder Saxdor on 2 March 2026, so fiscal 2026 contains four months of it, not twelve. Measured against reported net sales of $914.6M, FY27 guidance looks like 18-22% growth. At 7:45am the NEXT morning Malibu filed an item 8.01 pro forma showing FY2026 net sales of $1,050.9M with Saxdor owned all year - against which the same guide is 2.8-6.6%, and the pro forma bottom line is a LOSS of $0.11 a share.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD QUARTER, EXTRAPOLATED TOO FAR) — base-case value ~$27.0 vs ~$28.8 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$27.00 vs the $28.80 reaction close (-6%). Bear $22.16, base $27.85, bull $30.70 at 7.0x EV/EBITDA. Street: Hold, consensus target $32.00 (Truist $34, B. Riley $30).
- THE BEAT WAS REAL: Q4 adjusted EPS $0.92 vs $0.779, on adjusted basis (the four FY26 quarters sum to $1.61 vs a filed full-year adjusted $1.52; full-year GAAP was $0.09). But $61.2M of the $88.5M revenue increase and 180 of the 235 extra units were Saxdor.
- THE FULL YEAR WENT BACKWARDS: legacy unit volume -4.1%, gross margin 17.8% to 16.0%, adjusted EBITDA -1.1%, GAAP net income -88.8%. Net debt $90.6M from net cash. FY26 revenue beat the company's own May guide by ~$29M and produced ~$1M of extra EBITDA.
What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of gross margin at or above 17.5% with legacy unit volume no longer falling; Saxdor production starting on schedule at Fort Pierce, Florida. DOWN: a second write-down of the Saxdor earnout, already marked from $32.6M to $29.9M; gross margin stalling near 16%; dealer inventories falling faster than guided.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Harmony Gold (HMY) FY2026 — FY2026 (twelve months ended 30 June 2026): revenue R99,238M (US$5,876M), up 34%. Headline EPS 4,363 SA cents (258 US cents), up 87%. Basic EPS 4,701 SA cents, up 103% - the gap is a R2,779M non-cash impairment reversal. Record adjusted free cash flow US$1,015M. Gold produced 1,429,551oz, DOWN 3%, at an AISC of US$2,195/oz, UP 22% in dollars. First copper: 18,207t from CSA. Net debt R852M, from net CASH of R11,148M, after the US$1.0bn MAC Copper deal. Final dividend 750 SA cents vs 155. FY27 guides 1.30-1.40Moz - below FY26 actual - on roughly US$1.70bn of capex. The 6-K was accepted 27 August pre-open; the ADR closed -6.24% at $21.03 on 7,885,729 shares, then $20.04 on 28 August.
Harmony reported the best year in its history and the ADR fell 6.24% on 2.9x median volume, with gold at a record. Here is what the tape worked out. FIRST: the earnings were already public. JSE rules forced a trading statement on 21 August, six days early, and the ADR rose 6.9% that day; the actual print landed INSIDE the pre-announced range. SECOND: revenue is stated AFTER a realised gold hedge loss of R9,649M (US$571M), more than double last year and MORE than the entire record dividend of US$503M. THIRD: 618,000oz of FY27 output is already collared at an average ceiling of R2,403,903/kg, and spot rand gold sits just 2.6% below it. FOURTH: FY27 asks for LESS gold at a HIGHER cost, on roughly US$1.70bn of capex against US$934M of actual FY26 free cash flow, with the net cash already spent.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A RECORD YEAR THAT WAS PUBLISHED TWICE, HEDGED HEAVILY, AND ALREADY SPENT) — base-case value ~$18.6 vs ~$20.04 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$18.60 vs the $20.04 Aug 28 close (-7%). Bear $10.61, base $19.74, bull $24.96. Street: Hold, 10 analysts, avg target $20.97.
- HEPS 258 US cents, +87%. Revenue US$5,876M, +34%. But revenue is NET of a US$571M realised gold hedge loss - more than the US$503M record dividend.
- FY27 guides LESS gold (1.30-1.40Moz vs 1,429,551) at HIGHER cost, on ~US$1.70bn capex vs US$934M FY26 free cash. 7.8x HEPS, 5.0x EBITDA, 3.9% yield.
What to watch: UP: the December half-year showing collared ounces below 400,000, or ceilings rolled up toward the R2,805,213 struck in Q4; gold sustained above $4,750; the rand weakening toward R17.50, which cuts dollar AISC; Eva Copper's environmental approval landing on schedule. DOWN: gold below $4,250, which takes FY27 free cash flow to about US$605M against US$1.70bn of committed capital; the rand through R16.00, inflating dollar costs; grade slipping below the guided 5.60g/t after three years of decline; a further Eva permitting delay; any additional restatement after FY25 was restated.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.