Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 1, 2026): net sales $1,266.7m, UP 4.81%, a second-quarter record, against a $1,247.9m bar. Diluted EPS $4.17 against a $1.99 bar and $2.32 adjusted a year ago. CONSOLIDATED COMPARABLE SALES: +0%. Shares closed +35.67% at $147.75 on 12.27x median volume.
The two brands traded places. Abercrombie brands comped +4% against -11% a year ago; Hollister comped -3% against +19%. A 15-point swing one way, a 22-point swing the other, and the consolidated comparable sales line came out at exactly 0% - so all 4.81% of the net sales growth is square footage and channel. Strip the company's own $1.75 a share of IEEPA tariff refund and net income FELL 5.43%, while EPS still rose 4.31% on a 9.27% smaller share count.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD BUSINESS AT A PRICE THAT ASKS FOR MORE) — base-case value ~$142.18 vs ~$147.75 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE HANDOFF: Abercrombie brands comped +4% (from -11%) and Hollister -3% (from +19%) - a +15 and a -22 point swing that cancel, leaving CONSOLIDATED COMPARABLE SALES at exactly +0%. Hollister is the LARGER brand at 52.88% of net sales.
- SO THE GROWTH IS SPACE: net sales +4.81% to $1,266.7m with a zero comp, so all 4.81 points are new square footage, channel and currency. Guidance is ~30 net openings (50 openings, 20 closures) plus 80 remodels on roughly 850 stores.
- STRIP THE REFUND: ~$100m of IEEPA tariff refunds landed inside cost of sales, worth $1.75 a share after tax on the company's own arithmetic - 41.96% of net income. Ex-refund net income was $106.6m against $112.8m adjusted, DOWN 5.43%.
- BUT EPS STILL ROSE 4.31% ($2.42 vs $2.32) because diluted shares fell 9.27% to 44.05m. The 9.74-point wedge between falling profit and rising per-share earnings is entirely the buyback: 3.2m shares retired this year at an average of $88.13.
- THE UNDERLYING MARGIN CONTRACTED: on the company's own quarterly tariff table the year-on-year swing was 690bp, so operating margin ex-tariffs was 13.05% against 13.91% adjusted last year - DOWN 86bp. Selling expense rose 18.3% and G&A 16.8% on sales up 4.81%: a 566bp rise in the cost ratio.
- THE RAISE, DECOMPOSED: the full-year EPS midpoint went $10.60 to $13.35, a $2.75 raise - of which the company's own full-year refund estimate, inclusive of interest, is $2.10. That is 76.36%. The underlying raise is $10.60 to $11.25, or +6.13%, against a +35.67% day: a 5.82x ratio.
- THE PRICE: at $147.75 that is 13.13x the recurring $11.25 against 10.27x paid for the old forecast the day before - a 27.8% re-rating. Net cash is $638.0m with nothing drawn, inventories DOWN 0.2% on sales up 4.81%, and $500m of buyback is ~7.87% of market value.
What to watch: UP: Hollister comps turning positive while Abercrombie holds, and the selling and administrative cost ratio - up 566bp this quarter - stopping its climb. DOWN: a second negative Hollister quarter takes the consolidated comp negative, and fiscal 2027 is the first year with no refund in it.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 1, 2026): net sales $5,586.8m, UP 53.2%, against a $5,642.9m bar. Operating income $440.8m, DOWN 2.5%. Non-GAAP EPS $3.53 against a $3.74 bar and $4.38 a year ago; GAAP $3.50 against $4.71. DICK'S Business comps +4.9%; Foot Locker proforma comps -3.6%. The shares closed at $124.31, down 30.68% on 38,849,960 shares.
One ticker now holds two retailers moving in opposite directions. The DICK'S Business comped +4.9%, grew segment profit 2.16% to $485.2m and had its full-year comparable-sales outlook left untouched. Foot Locker, 31.1% of the quarter's sales, comped -3.6% and LOST $31.9m. Full-year operating profit guidance came down $260.5m at the midpoint and 73.08% of that cut is Foot Locker, from a business that is 33.79% of the guided revenue. The shares fell 30.68% - the worst session in 5,000 of price history.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, A HEALTHY TWO-THIRDS BEING GIVEN AWAY WITH A SICK THIRD) — base-case value ~$155.39 vs ~$124.31 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: non-GAAP operating income IS the sum of the two segment profits, to the dollar, in both years: $485,204k of DICK'S plus a $31,876k Foot Locker LOSS = $453,328k. DICK'S ADDED $10.3m (+2.16%); Foot Locker SUBTRACTED $31.9m. No attribution argument is available.
- THE GUIDANCE CUT: full-year non-GAAP operating profit $1.77bn -> $1.51bn, a $260.5m midpoint cut. DICK'S gave back $70m; Foot Locker swung from a guided +$130m PROFIT to a -$60m LOSS = $190m, 73.08% of the cut on 33.79% of guided revenue. The DICK'S comp outlook was MAINTAINED at +2.5% to +4.0%.
- THE DILUTION, MEASURED: non-GAAP EPS fell $0.85, $4.38 to $3.53. Holding earnings constant and moving only the share count, $0.3964 - 46.89% - is nothing but the 9.6 million shares issued to buy Foot Locker. Diluted shares went 81.0m to 90.1m.
- THE PRIOR-YEAR DISTORTION: the $4.71 GAAP comparison contained $49.7m pre-tax of non-cash gains on DICK'S pre-bid stake in Foot Locker equity - $0.4542 a share, 37.54% of the GAAP decline. 81.6% of the whole pre-tax decline is that one non-operating line.
- THE PROPORTIONALITY TEST: enterprise value fell $17.16bn to $12.20bn - $4.96bn in one session - against a $260.5m cut to this year's operating profit. That is 19.04x the cut: 50.9% the earnings reset at Monday's multiple, 49.1% the multiple itself, 9.69x to 8.08x.
- THE REVERSE SOLVE: hold the DICK'S Business at 10.0x its own guided $1.57bn of segment profit and it is worth $15.70bn - $3.50bn MORE than the entire enterprise. Foot Locker is worth exactly zero only if DICK'S itself is worth 7.77x.
- THE TAPE: $179.33 to $124.31, -30.68%, on 38,849,960 shares = 32.9x the median and 1st of 252 sessions. It gapped -20.62% and closed 1.38% off its own low. Worst of 5,000 sessions since October 2006; the prior worst was -24.15% in August 2023.
- CAPITAL RETURN: net debt $992.6m, 0.66x guided operating profit, revolver undrawn. The board declared $1.25 a share on August 24, the day BEFORE the print - an annual $5.00, a 4.02% yield here against 2.79% the day before, 43.5% of guided earnings. The half's buyback went at $196.38, now -36.70%.
What to watch: UP: a real repurchase against the $3.00bn unused authorisation, and a Foot Locker proforma comp that stops deteriorating in the November quarter. DOWN: Foot Locker inventory rising into a falling comp, which would take the announced clean-up bill above the current $750m ceiling.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Napco Security (NSSC) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): net revenue $55.809m, UP 10.03%, an all-time quarterly record. Net income $17.767m, UP 52.74%, also a record. Diluted EPS $0.50 against a $0.3867 Street bar - but the release states $0.09 of it is net tariff refunds. Shares OPENED UP 21.19% at $46.16, printed $51.77, and CLOSED DOWN 1.31% at $37.59 on 6.76x median volume.
Napco printed record revenue and record net income in the June quarter, and the stock opened up 21%, printed a 52-week high inside thirty minutes and closed down 1.31%. The reason is in the company's own headline bullet: $0.09 of the $0.50 is a refund of import duty from U.S. Customs after the Supreme Court struck the IEEPA tariffs down. Note 14 of the 10-K puts the figure at $3,353,000, all of it booked to cost of goods sold in one quarter.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GENUINE RECORD QUARTER WITH A CUSTOMS REFUND INSIDE IT, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR THE HALF THAT COMPOUNDS) — base-case value ~$34.51 vs ~$37.59 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: a $3,353,000 IEEPA tariff refund, ALL of it recognised in the June quarter's cost of goods sold. That is 601bp of the quarter's gross margin and $0.09 a diluted share - 79.44% of the entire beat against the $0.3867 Street bar.
- SEVEN OF THE NINE CENTS ARE A REVERSAL: only $1,003,000 of the refund relates to a prior year. The other $2,350,000 - 70.09% - gives back duty Napco paid in its own first three quarters, which is why the FULL YEAR benefit is 50bp and $0.03.
- AND IT IS NOT CASH: $2,931,000 of the $3,353,000 was still a receivable at June 30 - 87.41% of it, and 49.96% of the entire increase in accounts receivable. Replacement tariffs are already imposed under Section 122 and Section 301.
- STRIP IT AND THE BEAT IS TWO CENTS: $0.50 less $0.09 is $0.41 against a $0.3867 bar - a 6.03% beat, not 29.30%. $0.41 is also the figure the newswires printed at 10:22 ET while the screen showed the stock up 14.2%.
- THE PRICE RISE THAT LOST ITS COST: 71.67% of the year's 10.0% equipment growth was PRICE (7.14 points) against 2.82 points of volume, on the company's own MD&A percentages. The access alarm division shipped 15.2% FEWER units.
- THE HALF THAT COMPOUNDS: recurring service revenue is 48.21% of sales at a 90.3% gross margin and 73.49% of all gross profit. But the company's own exit run rate grew 9.57% ($94m to $103m) while reported recurring revenue grew 12.97%.
- THE CALL: HOLD, conviction 3/5, fair value $34.51 against $37.59 (-8.19%). EV of $1.21bn is 19.44x normalised EBITDA of $62.079m, a 34.6% premium to Allegion at 15.77x and Alarm.com at 13.13x. Five named Street houses average $50.80.
What to watch: UP: a September-quarter gross margin holding near 55.30% with replacement duties in force, OR next August's recurring run rate implying growth back above 12.97%, OR a resumed buyback. DOWN: Section 122 and Section 301 duties replacing what was refunded, unit volume staying near 2.82%, or the second shareholder class action turning into cash.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PDD Holdings (PDD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue RMB112,358m (US$16.6bn), UP 8.05%. Operating profit RMB27,764m, UP 7.64%. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders RMB27,182m, DOWN 11.61%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS per ADS RMB19.33 (US$2.85); GAAP diluted RMB18.45 (US$2.72). Shares closed at $87.07, DOWN 1.48% after opening UP 2.91%.
PDD Holdings grew revenue 8.05% and operating profit 7.64% in the June quarter, and net income FELL 11.61%. Every step between the two sits below the operating line, and one of them - other income, net - swung RMB7,518m in the quarter and RMB12,810m across the half, 2.35x everything operating profit added. Neither the release nor the audited 20-F ever decomposes it.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, A CHEAP PLATFORM, A HUGE PORTFOLIO NOBODY CAN REACH, AND EARNINGS SET BELOW THE OPERATING LINE) — base-case value ~$99.21 vs ~$87.07 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: operating profit RMB27,764m, UP 7.64%, against net income RMB27,182m, DOWN 11.61%. Across the half operating profit is UP 13.02% and net income DOWN 12.68%. The bridge closes to the RMB million and every step of it is non-operating.
- THE LINE NOBODY EXPLAINS: other income, net swung RMB7,518m in the quarter and RMB12,810m across the half - 2.35x what operating profit ADDED. On SEC XBRL it was POSITIVE every year 2020-2025, best ever RMB3,119.8m. The half alone is -RMB9,430m.
- HALF THE COMPANY IS A PORTFOLIO: cash, restricted cash, short-term investments and debt securities total RMB630,071m. Less ALL RMB215,620m of liabilities (no borrowing among them) = US$61.08bn, or $42.91 an ADS - 49.29% of the share price.
- AND IT HAS NEVER BEEN RETURNED: no dividend has ever been paid and no ordinary share or ADS repurchased - the only repurchases in the 20-F are of its own convertible notes. Every physical asset it owns totals US$1.34bn, 1.08% of market value.
- WHAT THE MARKET PAYS FOR THE PLATFORM: strip the portfolio and US$62.85bn is left against US$11.74bn of trailing after-tax operating profit - 5.35x, a 26.24% cash yield. At the Nov 10, 2025 closing high the same sum gave 13.35x: a 59.89% de-rating.
- THE EARNINGS BASIS, PROVED NOT ASSUMED: the vendor's epsActual IS the company's non-GAAP diluted per ADS, matching four straight quarters exactly. So $2.85 against a $2.76 bar is a real beat - but GAAP diluted is $2.72, which MISSES it and fell 11.08%.
- THE CALL: US$61.08bn of net financial assets at 0.65/0.75/0.85 plus US$11.74bn of after-tax operating profit at 5.5x/8.0x/11.0x. Bear $73.27 / base $98.18 / bull $127.22, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $99.21 vs $87.07, +13.95%. BUY 3/5 - and LESS bullish than the nine dated houses at $102.56.
What to watch: UP: the September-quarter other income line back near zero, OR any dividend or buyback - the first in the company's history. DOWN: that line repeating at this size, which would be roughly RMB29.6bn a year against a platform earning US$11.74bn.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Alvotech (ALVO) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $211.9m, DOWN 30.80% from $306.1m. Adjusted EBITDA $46.9m vs $53.6m. Loss per share $0.22, basic and diluted. Full-year guidance REAFFIRMED unchanged at $650-700m of revenue and $180-220m of adjusted EBITDA, which requires the second half to be 2.07x to 2.30x the first.
Alvotech's first-half revenue fell 30.80% to $211.9m and management left the full-year guidance exactly where it was, so the second half now has to deliver $438.1m - 2.07x the first. The obvious explanation is milestone timing, and it is false: product revenue fell 48.26% while licence revenue GREW 4.37%. But the licence line only grew because $39.75m came from an entity under common control.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL PLATFORM, A GUIDED RAMP WITH NO PRECEDENT, AND A LEVERAGED STUB) — base-case value ~$4.17 vs ~$4.43 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: total revenue $211.9m, DOWN 30.80%, while FY2026 guidance of $650-700m revenue and $180-220m adjusted EBITDA was REAFFIRMED for the third time. That leaves $438.1m-$488.1m for the second half - 2.07x to 2.30x the first - on 2.84x to 3.69x the EBITDA.
- THE SEASONALITY DEFENCE IS DEAD: FY2025 revenue was $593m against an H1 of $306.1m, so LAST YEAR'S SECOND HALF WAS SMALLER THAN ITS OWN FIRST ($286.9m, -6.30%). EBITDA skewed 1.56x; the 2026 guide asks 1.82x more skew than the company has ever delivered.
- THE MILESTONE-TIMING READ IS FALSE, AND WE TESTED IT: product and service revenue fell 48.26% ($98.8m) while licence and other revenue GREW 4.37%. Product is 104.8% of the entire decline. The manufacturing story management tells is the true one.
- BUT THE LICENCE LINE ONLY GREW ON A RELATED PARTY: $39.75m was recognised AT A POINT IN TIME under an agreement signed the same quarter with an entity under common control, zero prior-year comparable. Ex that, licence fell 34.88% and total revenue 43.78%.
- THE OPERATING LINE IS AN ACCOUNTING ELECTION: reported R&D fell 50.08% ($92.9m to $46.4m) while capitalised development went $15.2m to $56.0m under IAS 38. TOTAL development spend fell only 5.30%. Restore the swing and the $2.0m operating loss is $42.8m.
- THE CASH SAYS OTHERWISE: adjusted EBITDA $46.9m against cash USED in operations of $80.2m - a $127.1m gap of working capital ($56.8m, 83% contract assets) and interest paid ($72.2m vs $8.0m). Free cash flow -$171.2m, MORE than the $156.1m raised in June.
- THE CALL: EV $2,889.7m on the FILED 356,817,038 shares, guidance converted to a peer-comparable basis (0.8876). Bear $0.14 / base $4.29 / bull $7.96, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $4.17 vs $4.43, -5.86%. HOLD 3/5. The tape needs $270.8m of EBITDA.
What to watch: UP: product revenue back near the prior-year run rate in November AND the three US decisions landing in Q4. DOWN: any guidance revision, or a second half nearer the first than the range.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Lowe's (LOW) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended July 31, 2026): net sales $25.96bn, UP 8.34%, but $176m BENEATH the $26.13bn bar. Comparable sales +0.2%. GAAP diluted EPS $4.27, flat to the cent. Adjusted $4.40 vs a $4.22 bar. Full year cut to the bottom of the range: $92.0bn of sales, GAAP EPS ~$11.75 and adjusted ~$12.25, both BENEATH last year.
Lowe's grew net sales 8.34% and comparable sales 0.2%. Two tenths of one per cent on a $23.96bn base is about $48m, so 97.60% of the $2.00bn increase came from outside the comparable base - it was bought, not earned. Foundation Building Materials closed 9 October 2025 for $8.8bn cash and Artisan Design Group took $1,314m, paid for by cutting buybacks 94.79%. And the beat is the adjusted figure, which adds back $96m of amortisation and keeps an $0.11 tariff windfall inside it.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, AN EXCELLENT FRANCHISE, BOUGHT GROWTH, AND EARNINGS GUIDED BENEATH LAST YEAR) — base-case value ~$184.93 vs ~$216.09 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: net sales +8.34% (+$1,997m) against comparable sales of +0.2%. Two tenths of one per cent on a $23,959m base is about $48m, so 97.60% of the increase came from outside the comp base. The comp itself is transactions -2.1% offset by ticket +2.3% - price, not demand.
- THE BEAT IS ADJUSTED, AND WE PROVED THE BASIS: the four filed GAAP quarters of fiscal 2025 sum to $11.85, exactly the filed annual figure; the vendor's four sum to $12.29. So the $4.22 bar is adjusted. GAAP EPS was flat to the cent at $4.27, and revenue MISSED by $176m.
- THE WINDFALL IT LEAVES IN: the release states both the GAAP and adjusted figures include an $0.11 IEEPA tariff-refund benefit. Ex that, adjusted EPS is $4.29 against $4.33 - DOWN 0.92%. What it DOES exclude is $96m of intangible amortisation, which recurs.
- WHAT THE GROWTH COST: $8,800m for Foundation Building Materials plus $1,314m for Artisan Design Group = $10,114m of cash. Foundation was bought at 13.86x its disclosed 2024 EBITDA of $635m - above the 12.46x the market pays for Lowe's - on a 9.77% margin vs Lowe's 13.79%.
- WHAT PAID FOR IT: repurchases went from $4,053m in fiscal 2024 to $211m in fiscal 2025, a 94.79% cut. Since fiscal 2021 net earnings are -21.18% but EPS only -1.50%; the gap is a share count down 19.89%. This quarter diluted shares were 560m against 560m.
- THE GUIDANCE BRIDGE, AND IT FOOTS: $92.0bn at a guided 11.2% margin is $10,304m of operating income - $151m more on $5,714m more sales, a 2.64% INCREMENTAL margin. Guided interest of $1,600m is $194m more, LARGER than that, so pre-tax earnings are guided DOWN $43m.
- THE CALL: owner earnings $6,452m discounted at a 7.25% WACC on a 0.851 beta. Bear $121.83 / base $182.27 / bull $253.34, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $184.93 vs $216.09, -14.42%. SELL 3/5. The tape needs 5.97% growth; sales have compounded at -2.70% since fiscal 2021.
What to watch: UP: comparable transactions turning positive AND the incremental margin on acquired sales above 5%. DOWN: a second consecutive guidance cut with net interest above $1.70bn.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

ScanSource (SCSC) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $953.1m, UP 17.3%, against an $814.4m bar. Gross profit $119.8m, up only 14.0% - the gross margin FELL 35bp to 12.57%. Non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against a $1.14 consensus set by two analysts; GAAP $1.24. Full year: net sales $3.23bn, GAAP EPS $3.64, non-GAAP $4.24, free cash flow $113.8m.
ScanSource runs two businesses through one revenue line. Its distribution arm turns a dollar of net sales into 10.8 cents of gross profit; its Intelisys agency arm turns the same dollar into 98.6 cents. In the June quarter the 10-cent half grew 17.6% and the 99-cent half grew 7.2%, so net sales rose 17.3%, gross profit rose only 14.0%, and the gross margin FELL 35bp. In the same 8-K, management agreed to pay $220.5m cash for MicroAge to buy the margin it cannot grow.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP AGAINST ITS PEERS, WITH A MIX PROBLEM IT HAS JUST PAID $220.5M TO FIX) — base-case value ~$61.14 vs ~$54.35 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: two segments, one revenue line, two recognition bases. Specialty Technology Solutions turned $3,124.9m of net sales into $337.6m of gross profit = 10.80 CENTS per sales dollar. Intelisys & Advisory turned $101.1m into $99.7m, because its ENTIRE cost of sales was $1.4m = 98.60 CENTS. A 9.13x gap, off segment note 16.
- THE MIX: Q4 net sales +17.3% to $953.1m, but Specialty Technology grew 17.6% and Intelisys 7.2%. Gross profit rose only 14.0% and the margin FELL 35bp to 12.57%. For the full year it ROSE, 13.44% to 13.56%, on the opposite mix. The company's own sub-headline: 'Hardware Demand Drove 17% Net Sales Growth for Q4.'
- THE COMPLICATION: Intelisys operating income is $28.6m in FY2026 vs $30.6m in FY2024 - DOWN 6.57% - on revenue UP 9.62%. Its margin fell 489bp, 33.16% to 28.26%, as costs grew 16.22% against gross profit up 8.62%. That is the segment the $220.5m is meant to enlarge.
- THE DEAL: $220.5m all cash for MicroAge on the revolver, in Item 1.01 of the same 8-K as the results. 20.1% of market value, 1.079x the last TWO YEARS of buybacks. Net debt $13.0m to about $233.5m = 1.54x adjusted EBITDA (covenant 3.50x). FY27 guidance EXCLUDES it, and no MicroAge financials are disclosed.
- VALUATION: fair value $61.14 vs $54.35, +12.50%, BUY 3/5. Enterprise value $1.11bn from the filed balance sheet = 8.27x unadjusted EBITDA vs a 12.24x peer median (SNX, ARW, AVT, NSIT, CNXN, all share counts checked). A 32.4% discount on a 10.40% free cash flow yield. Bear $48.47 / base $60.77 / bull $74.57.
- FALSIFIED: NOT a record quarter. SEC XBRL puts $953.1m FIFTH - December 2018 printed $1,046.0m - and FY2026 net sales are 1.03% BELOW FY2024. The 12-month CLOSING high is $58.89 on 4 August, BEFORE the print, so even the +9.67% reaction closed 4.25% under it.
- THE TAPE AND THE STREET: 8-K accepted 08:30 ET, an hour before the open. It OPENED +26.10%, printed +29.87%, CLOSED +9.67% - keeping 32.4% of its best level - on the largest volume session of all 266 (5.54x median), then -3.62%. The high came in the first five minutes, half the gap gone by 10:00, BEFORE the 10:30 call. And there is exactly ONE live published target: Barclays $43.00, dated 8 October 2025, older than three of the four quarters just reported and 20.9% BELOW the tape.
What to watch: UP: the Intelisys operating margin turning back up through 30%, and MicroAge closing with disclosed revenue and margin that justify the price. DOWN: the gross margin falling again while free cash flow tracks toward the guided $85m floor rather than through it.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Youdao (DAO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): total net revenues RMB1,466.9m (US$216.2m), UP 3.48%, against a RMB1,560m consensus. Income from operations RMB111.5m, UP 287.33% - the highest quarter Youdao has ever disclosed and its eighth consecutive profitable one. Gross margin 48.9% from 43.0%. Non-GAAP RMB0.76 per share against a RMB0.26 bar; GAAP RMB0.62.
Youdao printed the best operating quarter in its history - income from operations RMB111.5m, up 287.33%, an eighth straight profitable quarter - and both superlatives survive testing against the filed series. But revenue grew only 3.48%: learning services alone contributed 118.77% of the entire gross-profit increase while smart devices took RMB24.2m back out. And the balance sheet still carries a TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' DEFICIT of RMB1.81bn (US$266.3m). At the RMB127.3m it closed in the half - a half containing that record quarter - reaching zero book value takes 7.10 years.
THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A REAL TURNAROUND, NO EQUITY BEHIND IT, AND A PRICE ABOVE EVERY PUBLISHED TARGET) — base-case value ~$11.21 vs ~$18.34 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: total shareholders' deficit RMB1,806.8m (US$266.3m) at June 30, against total assets of RMB1,956.6m. It narrowed RMB127.3m in the half - 7.10 YEARS to zero book value, and that half held the best quarter in company history. Cross-checked on H1 net income: 7.45 years.
- THE RECORD, TESTED: income from operations RMB111.5m vs RMB28.8m, UP 287.33% (3.87x). Prior peak was Q3 2024 at RMB107.3m, so the record is real by 3.98%. Streak counted off the filed series: exactly 8 quarters.
- HOW IT WAS MADE: revenue UP 3.48% but gross profit UP 17.64%. Learning services added RMB127.7m of gross profit = 118.77% of the whole RMB107.5m rise; smart devices took RMB24.2m out. Two of three segments shrank.
- THE FUNDING: every borrowing is owed to NetEase - RMB878.0m short term plus US$118.9m long term of a US$300.0m revolver = US$248.3m, or 1.98x the company's US$125.2m of liquidity. The release carries a going-concern dependency sentence.
- THE PRICE: US$2.18bn market cap on US$23.7m of trailing earnings = 92.1x, and 44.2x even on the record quarter annualised. At the 17.80x of New Oriental and NetEase, today's price needs US$122.5m a year - 5.17x trailing, 1.99x the Street's own 2028 forecast.
- THE VALUATION: fair value $11.21 vs $18.34, a gap of -38.86%. SELL, conviction 4/5. Bear $7.47, base $10.37, bull $16.64. The tape sits +38.31% above the six-analyst average target of $13.26 and +23.09% above the highest at $14.90.
What to watch: UP: contract liabilities turning up alongside learning-services growth, plus the deficit closing materially faster than RMB127.3m a half. DOWN: the parent revolving facility drawn harder while the deficit stops narrowing, or learning services decelerating from 20.94% with two of three segments already shrinking.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $410.2m, UP 25.22%, on available days DOWN 1.76% and a fleet six vessels smaller. Earnings per common unit $5.78 GAAP and $4.65 adjusted, against a $4.35 bar. Adjusted EBITDA $242.2m, UP 40.30%. Fleet utilisation 99.4%.
Navios Partners grew earnings per common unit 147.01% to $5.78 and its units still change hands at 0.71x the book value of its own ships - $88.78 against $124.23 a unit. The enterprise is priced at 0.94x the depreciated cost of the fleet alone. The reason sits in the company's own flagship disclosure: $843.5m of newbuild tankers contracted to earn $700.2m of revenue, which is 69.88% of their cost back as profit inside the firm charters.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL DISCOUNT TO BOOK, AND A REINVESTMENT RATE THAT SPENDS IT) — base-case value ~$86.72 vs ~$88.78 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: $843.5m of newbuild tankers, 7 vessels, chartered 6.1 years at $45,224/day for $700.2m of contracted REVENUE - 83.01% of cost. Net of the filed $7,152/day running cost the firm charters return $589.5m, or 69.88%.
- THE DISCOUNT: partners' capital $3,593.5m over 28,925,804 units = $124.23 book a unit vs $88.78. EV $4,306.3m is 0.94x the $4,575.0m of vessels at net book.
- THE QUARTER: revenue $410.2m UP 25.22% on available days DOWN 1.76%. All rate: dry bulk TCE UP 53.1%, tankers UP 25.0%, containerships FLAT at -0.4%.
- THE REVERSE SOLVE: at $88.78 the EV pays for $1.01bn of adjusted profit at a borrowed 4.28x, 12.81% more than the $892.6m run rate - roughly the newbuild programme, paid for in advance.
- THE VALUATION: fair value $86.72 vs $88.78, a gap of -2.32%. HOLD, conviction 3/5. Bear $61.43, base $87.32, bull $110.81.
What to watch: UP: the new $200.0m repurchase actually running near this price, which retires 7.96% of the units and books $79.9m of value at 0.71x book; or newbuild charters struck at rates that repay the hull inside the firm period. DOWN: dry bulk mean reverting from a rate that rose 53.1% in twelve months while the order book is still being funded with debt.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The Buckle (BKE) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 1, 2026): net sales $319.8m, UP 4.60% and the biggest second quarter in a decade, comparable store sales UP 2.1%, gross margin 47.43% to 47.85% - and operating profit still FELL 0.96% to $55.8m. Diluted earnings $0.87 against an $0.81 bar. The shares rose 2.74% on the reaction session, the 15th best of 252, after giving back 48% of their intraday high.
Buckle's screen yield is 10.04%, and it is two different numbers wearing one ticker. The rate the board has actually committed to is $0.35 a quarter - $1.40 a year, a yield of 3.20%. The other 6.85% came from a $3.00 special dividend declared on December 8, 2025, paid on January 29, 2026, and re-decided by the board every December. It has NOT been declared for this year. Meanwhile the engine that pays for it just stalled: sales hit a record $319.8m and operating profit still fell 0.96%.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT RETAILER, A HALF PROMISED YIELD, AND A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR TODAY) — base-case value ~$43.09 vs ~$43.81 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: $4.40 a share was paid over the last twelve months - a 10.04% yield - but $3.00 of it was a SPECIAL dividend. The committed rate is $1.40 a year, or 3.20%.
- THE PROOF, TO THE THOUSAND: retained earnings FELL $4.505m (from $261.868m to $257.363m) on net income of $220.837m, so $225.342m was charged out - a payout of 102.04%.
- THE ENGINE STALLED: net sales UP 4.60% to a record $319.8m and gross margin UP 0.42 points, yet operating profit FELL 0.96%, because SG&A rose $8.551m against $8.012m more gross profit.
- PRICE, NOT UNITS: average unit retail UP about 4.5% and transaction value UP 3.5%, while units per transaction FELL about 1%, on comparable sales of UP 2.1%. Online grew just 2.3%.
- THE VALUATION: enterprise value $2.39bn is 9.35x clean trailing operating profit of $255.6m. Fair value $43.09 against $43.81, a gap of -1.64%. HOLD, conviction 3 of 5.
What to watch: UP: a fourth consecutive special dividend at the December board meeting, which would confirm the pattern the price quietly assumes; or two quarters with SG&A growth back below gross profit growth. DOWN: inventory up 13.28% against sales up 4.60% failing to clear at full price, putting markdowns in the very quarter the special is decided; average unit retail up 4.5% with units per transaction down 1.0% is a price led comp, and price led comps stop when the customer stops accepting the price.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.