Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Fastenal (FAST) Q3 2026 — FAST closed at $50.38 on October 15, down 3.1% from the prior close; release clock unconfirmed.
Fastenal grew quarterly profit 19.7%, but cash after gross capital spending grew only 6.4%. Customer collections and investment decide how much growth reaches owners.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MEDIUM) — Rounded cash-led base DCF ~$26 vs ~$50.38 October 15 closing common share price.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $2,463.3m, +15.5%; net income $401.6m, +19.7%
- Operating cash $421.6m; gross-capex FCF $347.6m, +6.4%
- Receivables grew 19.9%; net cash $111.9m excluding leases
- SELL, conviction 3/5; cash-led base anchor $26; reference price $50.38
What to watch: Reassess near $20.80 only with intact cash quality; watch receivable days, CFO conversion, gross margin and capital productivity.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fast-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Wipro Limited (WIT) Q2 FY2027 — WIT closed at $1.87 on October 15, approximately 3.9% above the preceding stored daily close. Exact release clock and session are unconfirmed; this is not causal attribution.
Wipro converted profit into cash, but weaker bookings and a lower share count complicate the earnings-per-share improvement. We separate cash generation, capital returns and demand, then test three valuation routes.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1.85 vs ~$1.87 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue ₹247.5B; IT Services $2,611.5M, flat sequential constant currency
- Basic EPS ₹3.23, +4.2% YoY; total profit ₹32.0B, −1.9%
- Weighted basic shares −5.5% YoY after June buyback
- Operating cash flow ₹53.0B, 165.8% of total net income
- Total bookings $2,595M; large bookings $674M
- IT Services margin 16.5%; next-quarter CC outlook −1.5% to +0.5%
- HOLD; $1.85 base fair value versus $1.87 reference close
What to watch: Require sustained positive constant-currency growth, bookings above quarterly services revenue and margin at least 17%; alternatively a price near $1.48 with the thesis intact offers a 20% cushion to our $1.85 base.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/wit-q2-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) Q3 FY2026 — MKC closed at $44.14 on the October 1 release date, down 4.87% from the previous close. Reference quote $45.71 on October 15 at 20:00 UTC. Exact release clock unconfirmed; daily return is not causal attribution.
McCormick grew sales and adjusted operating profit, but acquisition accounting, financing and outside ownership complicate per-share returns. We trace the quarter and test three valuation routes while keeping the pending Unilever Foods combination explicit.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$52.00 vs ~$45.71 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 sales $2,024.8M, +17.4%; organic +1.9%
- Acquisition contribution 14.6 percentage points; volume / mix −0.3%
- Adjusted operating income $358.5M; GAAP $217.0M
- Adjusted EPS $0.86; GAAP EPS $0.36
- 2026 adjusted EPS outlook $3.05–3.13 reaffirmed
- YTD OCF $598.8M; capex $131.2M; common dividends $387.0M
- Debt $5,018.2M; cash $331.1M; Unilever combination pending
What to watch: Positive organic volume, durable cash conversion and verified financing can lift value; otherwise require a larger cushion. The price-only entry test is $41.60 if underlying value remains intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/mkc-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Ericsson (ERIC) Q3 2026 — ERIC rose 11.8% from the prior close to the October 15 close of $10.71.
Ericsson’s profit fell against last year’s disposal gain while underlying operations improved. Inventory and licensing timing decide how much of the progress becomes durable cash.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$9.7 vs ~$10.71 October 15 closing ADS price.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue SEK 59.478bn, +5.8% reported / +7% organic
- Adjusted EBITA SEK 10.121bn; prior-year SEK 7.6bn disposal gain distorts comparison
- Net income SEK 5.797bn; FCF before M&A SEK 4.902bn
- Inventory cash use SEK 4.086bn; reported net cash SEK 60.687bn
- HOLD; three-route anchor $9.70; weighted scenario $9.55
What to watch: A 20% discount to the $9.70 anchor implies $7.76 with the thesis intact. Watch inventory days, FCF conversion, recurring IPR and Networks 49–51% Q4 adjusted gross margin.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/eric-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Prologis, Inc. (PLD) Q3 2026 — PLD reference quote was $126.94 on October 15 at 20:02 UTC, down 2.70% versus the prior $130.46 close. The saved provider daily bar agrees; this is not a certified exchange closing-auction price.
Prologis grew Core FFO and reset rents higher, but leasing costs, development funding and a pending acquisition complicate the cash return. We trace the bridge to AFFO and test three transparent valuation routes without assuming SEGRO synergies.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$125.00 vs ~$126.94 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $2,387.518M, +7.84% YoY
- Core FFO/share $1.60 vs $1.49; GAAP EPS $0.86 vs $0.82
- AFFO $1,206.832M, 78.1% of Core FFO; non-GAAP, not OCF
- Cash rent change 23.4%; average occupancy 95.1%
- 2026 Core FFO/share guidance $6.25–6.29; midpoint +$0.01
- Consolidated debt $36,832.482M; cash $2,273.497M
- 2025 operating cash $5,008.434M; development outlays $2,781.260M
What to watch: Durable cash rent conversion, occupancy and productive development support value; otherwise require a larger valuation cushion. Verify actual SEGRO closing and financing before adding benefits.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/pld-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 2026 — JNJ fell 5.73% on October 13, from the prior close to the release-day close. The separate October 15 intraday reference is $253.62.
Johnson & Johnson grew sales while adjusted earnings fell. The litigation charge dominates GAAP profit, but the cash and portfolio questions reach beyond that one adjustment.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$235 vs ~$253.62 October 15 intraday snapshot.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $25.399B, +5.9%; adjusted EPS $2.59, −7.5%
- GAAP net income $210M; adjusted net $6.339B
- Litigation adjustment $5.519B; cash timing and participation conditions remain
- Management estimates Q3 FCF above $6B and FY2026 FCF approximately $21B
- Three valuation routes: $223 cash, $249 earnings, $230 dividend
- HOLD; fair-value anchor $235; scenario-weighted value $236.25
What to watch: A 20% discount to the $235 anchor implies $188 with the thesis intact. Watch adjusted EPS growth, approximately $21B full-year FCF, legal participation and 2027 deal dilution.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/jnj-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Q3 2026 — UNH traded at $410.12 on October 15 at 17:56 UTC, up 3.67% versus the prior $395.62 close; this is a frozen intraday snapshot, not the earnings-day closing return.
UnitedHealth reported higher profit on slightly lower revenue and raised its annual earnings floor. We separate medical reserve development and portfolio benefits from recurring operating progress, then test whether the valuation leaves enough protection.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$400.00 vs ~$410.12 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue $112,694M, −0.4% YoY; operating earnings $6,563M, +52.1%
- GAAP EPS $4.56; adjusted EPS $4.69
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance at least $20.50
- Reported medical care ratio 88.4%; favorable medical reserve development $610M
- Optum Health adjusted operating margin 2.6%; medical members 48.3M
- Nine-month operating cash $25,087M; capex $2,421M; computed conventional FCF $22,666M
- Debt-to-capital 41.7%; company year-end target approximately 40%
What to watch: Medical economics hold with less reserve support, Optum Health adjusted margins improve and capital targets are met; otherwise require a larger valuation cushion.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/unh-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q3 2026 — At 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15, TSM traded at $411.27, down 4.36% from the previous close. This is an intraday snapshot, not the final session return.
TSMC delivered strong growth and cash conversion. A prior-quarter investment gain complicates the earnings comparison, while cash-flow and earnings valuations give very different answers.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$410 vs ~$411.2678 at 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15 (intraday).
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 revenue US$46.72bn; NT$1,494.24bn, +50.9% YoY
- Operating margin 58.7%; attributable profit NT$763.06bn
- Operating cash NT$919.77bn; issuer free cash flow NT$476.56bn
- Q2 VIS gain NT$63.20bn complicates sequential profit comparison
- Q4 revenue guidance US$52.3–54.3bn
- HOLD; fair-value anchor $410; scenario weighted value $409.50
What to watch: A 25% margin of safety implies $307.50 with the thesis intact, or reassess on sustained cash margins above the model. Watch Q4 revenue $52.3–54.3bn and operating margin 56.5–58.5%.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tsm-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Q4 FY2026 — CMC traded near $67.93 in early trading, up 4.04% versus the prior close; this is a frozen intraday snapshot, not a closing return.
Steel margins expanded and annual cash generation improved. Yet precast missed expectations, taxes flattered EPS growth, and acquisition debt still matters. We test what the bigger portfolio must earn to justify the price.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$70.00 vs ~$67.93 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $2,658.3M, +25.7% YoY
- Core EBITDA $393.7M, +35.1% YoY; company non-GAAP
- GAAP EPS $1.91; adjusted EPS $2.09
- North America metal margin $652/ton
- Precast adjusted EBITDA $57.0M, below prior expectations
- FY2026 operating cash flow $1,059.0M; capex $579.8M; computed FCF $479.1M
- Ordinary net debt $2,605.2M; separate litigation reserve $377.3M
What to watch: Steel spreads hold, precast recovers after seasonal weakness, and free cash flow improves while net debt falls; otherwise require a material discount.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cmc-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

GoldMining Inc. (GLDG) Q3 FY2026 — Reference price $0.821 is the October 14 close. No isolated earnings-day reaction is asserted; issuer release time is unconfirmed.
GoldMining reports substantial working capital, but locked holdings and subsidiary cash complicate the funding picture. We separate spendable cash, quoted stakes and preliminary project value.
THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$0.76 vs ~$0.821 at the October 14 close.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 exploration expense C$11.398m; operating loss C$14.851m
- Nine-month operating cash flow −C$25.273m
- Cash C$16.675m includes C$5.763m at USGO
- Working capital C$46.608m includes restricted NevGold holding
- NevGold August 31 carrying value C$27.656m; hold period to Feb 27, 2027
- HOLD; anchor $0.76; reference $0.821; scenario weighted $0.822
What to watch: Reassess near $0.53 with the thesis intact, or on credible project funding without expensive dilution. Watch residual cash, ending shares and the December 8 ATM expiry.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/gldg-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.