Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Synopsys (SNPS) Q3 FY2026 — Shares rose 13.4% to $464.89 the next session, the best day of the year, then handed 41% of it back to close at $442.61.
Design IP - 19% of revenue, and the segment the 10-Q names as the one China export controls hurt - went -6.5%, -5.8%, then +10.8% year on year, with its margin off a 16.3% trough to 26.5%.
THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$373 vs ~$443 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $2.477B, +42.4% YoY; adjusted EPS $3.91 vs $3.39, above the guided ceiling
- Design IP revenue +10.8% to $473.8M after -6.5% and -5.8% in the prior two quarters
- Design IP adjusted operating margin 26.5%, off a 16.3% trough, vs 20.1% a year ago
- Design Automation +52.7% to $2,003.0M, 80.9% of revenue, at a 45.2% adjusted margin
- China revenue $255.5M, +3.3%, vs +48.8% everywhere else; now 10.3% of revenue vs 14.2%
- Nine-month reported net income $627.9M, -29.2%, on revenue +49.2%
- Adjusted net income +37.1% but adjusted EPS +15.3%; diluted shares +18.9%
- Q3 reported EPS $2.84 carries $2.09 of acquisition amortisation and a $2.09 divestiture gain
- Restructuring estimate raised to $425-500M from $300-350M in an 8-K/A the same day
- FY26 guidance: revenue $9.715B, adjusted EPS $15.07, free cash flow ~$2.6B (from ~$2.0B)
- FY26 reported operating margin guided 10.4% against an adjusted 41.5%
- Backlog $10.9B including $1.9B of flexible spending commitments; 49% converts in 12 months
- Balance sheet: $3.61B cash, $10.04B debt, $38.3B goodwill and intangibles of $47.7B assets
- Valuation: owner DCF $373 blended - 40% DCF $311, 35% adjusted P/E $429, 25% EV/FCF $393
What to watch: Design IP holding above 8% growth for two more quarters, with China under 8% of revenue and the total growth rate intact, would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) Q2 FY2027 — Shares jumped 20.5% to $227.96 the next session - their best day of the year - then eased to $218.40.
Revenue grew 26%, calculated billings 29%, the contracted book 49%. Every test of earnings quality came back clean, and the shares still trade at 37x this year's guided revenue.
THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$107 vs ~$218 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $1,470.9M, +25.8% YoY; subscription revenue $1,400.3M, +27.0%
- Subscription ARR $5.84B, +25%; net new ARR $332.8M, +51% against a soft base
- Calculated billings $1,590.9M, +29.1% - running ahead of revenue at +25.8%
- Remaining performance obligations $10.7B, +48.6%; deferred revenue $4.84B, +26.3%
- Non-GAAP EPS $0.31 vs GAAP $0.01; stock comp $399.0M is 27.1% of revenue
- Non-GAAP operating income $371.6M - smaller than the $399.0M of stock comp added back
- Free cash flow $377.4M, 25.7% of revenue, a Q2 record; H1 FCF $850.1M at 29.8%
- H1 owner cash after stock comp $175.5M, a 6.1% margin on $2.86B of revenue
- FY27 revenue guide raised $64.4M to $5,991-6,011M, against a $31.9M quarter beat
- Our fair value ~$107 vs the $218.40 close; Street median $240; EV 36.6x revenue
What to watch: two consecutive quarters of revenue growth back above 30% would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Workday (WDAY) Q2 FY2027 — Shares gapped down, reversed, and closed up 5.8% at $204.72 the next session.
AI drove more than 25% of new ACV. Total subscription backlog grew 8.0%, slower than the 13.9% subscription revenue it feeds.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$191 vs ~$205 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $2,649M, +12.8% YoY; subscription revenue $2,471M, +13.9%
- Total subscription backlog $27.40B, +8.0%; 12-month backlog $9.03B, +14.2%
- Backlog beyond 12 months fell to $18.37B from $18.49B in April
- Non-GAAP operating margin 31.1% vs 29.0%; non-GAAP EPS $2.75 vs $2.61 consensus
- GAAP EPS $2.57 includes $1.52 of one-off IP-transfer tax benefit
- Free cash flow $460M, -21.8% YoY; H1 free cash flow $1.08B, +6.6%
- Non-GAAP EPS +24.4% but non-GAAP net income +13.2%; diluted shares -8.8%
- H1 buyback $2.92B = 2.06x trailing free cash flow; net cash down to $414M
- FY27 subscription guide $9.940-9.950B; the $9.950B ceiling is unchanged since May
- FY27 non-GAAP operating margin guide raised 30.5% to 31.0%
What to watch: total subscription backlog growth back above 10% for two straight quarters would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Okta (OKTA) Q2 FY2027 — Shares jumped 28.6% to $172.91 the next session, then eased to $166.23.
Reported operating income more than doubled to $107M - but 64% of that gain is stock compensation and purchase amortisation shrinking, and the adjusted operating margin did not move.
THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$135 vs ~$166 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $805M, +10.6% YoY; subscription revenue $793M, +11.5%
- GAAP operating income $107M vs $41M, but 64% of the $66M gain is non-cash
- Stock compensation fell $144M to $114M; purchase amortisation $17M to $3M
- Non-GAAP operating margin 28.1% vs 27.7%; across H1 it FELL, 26.6% vs 27.3%
- Cash opex ex-stock +9.5% vs revenue +10.6%; cash sales and marketing +14.2%
- Free cash flow $227M, 28.2% of revenue, up from 22.3% a year ago
- cRPO $2.585B, +14% against an +11% guide; total RPO $4.858B, +17%
- FY27 guide raised: revenue $3,216-3,226M, free cash flow $910-930M
- But the guided cash margin is DOWN: 28.6% vs 31.0% delivered in FY2026
- Our fair value ~$135 vs the $166.23 close; Street median $190, low $143
What to watch: adjusted operating margin above 30% for two straight quarters would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Rubrik (RBRK) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell 13.1% to $93.05 the next session, after running 43% into the print.
Revenue grew 38%, subscription ARR 33%, the contracted book 31% - and calculated billings just 19%.
THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$60 vs ~$93 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $427.3M, +38% YoY; subscription revenue $407.2M, +37%
- Subscription ARR $1,660.9M, +33%; net new ARR $95.8M, +35%
- Calculated billings $898.8M for the half, +19% vs revenue +38%
- Deferred revenue $1,929.8M; the noncurrent leg fell 3.4% since January
- Non-GAAP EPS $0.20 vs GAAP loss per share $0.30; 96% of the gap is stock comp
- Free cash flow $65.7M, 15% of revenue, down from 19%
- Half-year operating cash flow $158.5M against $174.4M of stock comp
- 3,084 customers above $100K of ARR, +23%; Cloud ARR $1.48B, +39%
- FY27 guide raised: revenue $1,685-1,693M, free cash flow $323-333M
- Our fair value ~$60 vs $93.05 close; Street median $120
What to watch: billings back within five points of ARR growth for two straight quarters would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Photronics (PLAB) Q3 FY2026 — Shares rose 3.2% to $30.25 on the print, then slid to $27.73 by Friday's close.
Adjusted EPS beat a cut bar by 24% - but the venture partners took $15.0M of the $43.9M consolidated profit, and $503.5M of the $672.8M cash sits inside those ventures.
THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$23.56 vs ~$27.73 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $216.0M, +2.7% YoY and +2.9% sequentially, vs $208.8M consensus
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.50 vs a $0.40 bar (+24%) - but $0.51 a year ago
- GAAP net income to PLAB $28.9M / $0.49 of $43.9M consolidated
- Non-controlling interests took $15.0M, 34% of consolidated net income
- Operating profit $45.5M, -5.5% YoY; operating margin 21.1% vs 22.9%
- IC revenue $154.7M (+5%); FPD $61.4M (-2%); high-end IC mix a record 44%
- Cash and short-term investments $672.8M; $503.5M sits in the 50.01% JVs
- Operating cash flow $76.3M; capex $37.0M in the quarter, $130.4M in nine months
- Q4 FY26 guide: revenue $207-227M, operating margin 19-24%, EPS $0.40-0.56
- Our fair value ~$23.56 vs $27.73; three dated Street targets $42-55, median $45
What to watch: one cash distribution out of the joint ventures, or capital spending back under $121M a year, would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Autodesk (ADSK) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell 3.7% to $260.66 the next session, after rising 6.2% into the print.
Revenue grew 16%, billings 10%, current RPO 12% - and total remaining performance obligations just 2%.
THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$199 vs ~$261 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $2,046M, +16% YoY (+14% cc), vs $2,012M consensus
- Adjusted EPS $3.30 (+26%) vs $3.12 bar; GAAP diluted EPS $2.33
- Billings $1,854M, +10% YoY
- Total RPO $7,433M, +2% YoY; current RPO $5,245M, +12%
- Unbilled deferred revenue $3,175M, -8% YoY
- Free cash flow $561M, +24%; operating cash flow $575M
- Adjusted operating margin 41%; GAAP operating margin 29%
- FY27 guide raised: revenue $8,295-8,345M, adjusted EPS $12.52-12.60
- MaintainX acquired 3 Aug 2026 for ~$3.53B, funded with $2B of new debt
- Our fair value ~$199 vs $260.66 close; Street average $315.57
What to watch: current RPO growing faster than revenue for two straight quarters would break our thesis
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Veeva Systems (VEEV) Q2 FY2027 — Q2 FY2027 (three months to 31 July 2026): revenue $928.0M, +17.6% YoY; adjusted operating profit $415.9M at a 44.8% margin; adjusted EPS $2.35 against a $2.21-$2.22 guide. The shares closed +15.2% on the print.
Veeva raised its full-year revenue guide by $44.5M at the midpoint - but $24.5M of that is simply the July quarter beating its own guide and flowing through. The forward raise is $20.0M, or 0.54% of the year, and 2.5 cents of adjusted EPS. The market has added $5.15B of value since the release.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY ASSUMES IT) — base-case value ~$250 vs ~$276.69 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $250 vs the $276.69 close of 28 August (-9.8%). One owner-earnings DCF run three times on growth: bear $188.45, base $251.03, bull $320.24, weighted 30/45/25 at a 9.0% discount and 3.0% terminal.
- THE RAISE, DECOMPOSED: the FY27 revenue guide went from $3,640.0M to $3,684.5M at the midpoint, a $44.5M raise. But the July quarter was guided to $903.5M and printed $928.0M, so $24.5M of that raise is the quarter itself. The raise BEYOND the beat is $20.0M (0.54% of the year) and 2.5 cents of adjusted EPS.
- REVENUE $928.0M, +17.6% YoY. Subscription $766.8M (+16.3%), professional services $161.2M (+24.1%). Services is 17.4% of revenue against 16.5% a year ago and a 15.3% low in January: the Vault CRM migration, paid for in services dollars.
- MARGIN: adjusted operating margin 44.8% (44.7% a year ago). But gross margin FELL to 75.0% from 75.3%, because services carry a 31.5% adjusted gross margin against subscription's 86.6%.
- CASH: quarterly operating cash flow $238.7M against $238.4M a year ago, flat, but that is an artefact of the prior-year base (a ~$47M deferred-tax add-back, a ~$43M litigation accrual), not deterioration. Half-year OCF $1.37B, +22.4%.
- BALANCE SHEET: $7.24B net cash (16.2% of market value, $44.73 a share) and NO debt. H1 buyback $467M at an average $175.28 against $256M of stock compensation: 1.82x cover, in cash. Filed share count 161.91M, -1.2% YoY.
- VALUATION: enterprise value $37.56B = 10.9x trailing revenue and 32.7x owner earnings ($1.15B). 45.4x trailing reported EPS of $6.10; 30.0x the $9.21 FY27 adjusted guide.
- WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: a reverse run says $276.69 needs owner earnings to compound 17.2% in year one, fading to 4.8% by year ten, against a company guiding FY27 revenue to +15.3%.
- THE STREET: 15 dated targets, all published 27 August, all above the tape. Median $300, range $250 to $330. Across the 13 carrying a prior number the average went $240 to $295 in one day, +22.6%.
What to watch: UP: services growing SLOWER than subscription for two straight quarters; gross margin back above the 75.3% of a year ago. DOWN: services past 18% of revenue with gross margin still falling.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Elastic (ESTC) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027 (three months to 31 July 2026): revenue $478.1M, +15.1% YoY; adjusted operating profit $77.3M at a 16.2% margin; adjusted EPS $0.70 against a $0.584 estimate. The REPORTED operating result was a $23.6M loss, wider than the $9.4M loss a year earlier. Shares closed +19.3% at $99.91, a new 12-month high.
Elastic added $1.7 billion of market value in one session, then raised its guidance for the remaining nine months of fiscal 2027 by $2.9 million. The full-year revenue guide moved $11.5M at the midpoint - but the July quarter alone landed $8.1M above the TOP of its own guide, so nearly the whole raise is the quarter flowing through, and the implied adjusted EPS for the rest of the year actually fell four cents.
THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, THE WHOLE VALUATION SPREAD IS ONE ACCOUNTING LINE) — base-case value ~$79.79 vs ~$99.91 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: BEARISH 3/5, fair value $79.79 vs the $99.91 close of 28 August (-20.1%). One DCF on the company's own FY27 guidance, run three times, changing only how much of ~$310M of annual stock compensation is charged: bear $56.86 (charged in full), base $81.54 (half), bull $104.15 (not charged). Weighted 30/45/25.
- THE RAISE: FY27 revenue guide $1.985B-$2.000B up to $1.998B-$2.010B. Q1 beat the top of its own guide by $8.1M, so the implied guide for the remaining nine months rose only $2.9M, and implied adjusted EPS for those months FELL $0.04.
- MARGIN: GAAP gross margin 74.5% from 76.7% (-2.2 pts); non-GAAP 76.6% from 78.7%. Subscription cost of revenue +32.4% against subscription revenue +15.5%. The operating-margin improvement is funded by a 7% workforce reduction announced 24 June 2026.
- THE BULL CASE IS REAL: cRPO $1.153B +21%, RPO $1.854B +27% against +15.1% in revenue. Over 1,800 customers above $100K ACV (from 1,720 in April) - the company's highest first-quarter net additions ever. Net cash $889.8M.
- STOCK PAY: FY2026 free cash flow $322.0M against $298.4M of stock compensation - 93%. 2.79M shares went out gross last year; buying those back at $99.91 costs $279M, about 73% of this year's cash flow.
- MULTIPLES on the FILED 105.12M share count: market value $10.50B, enterprise value $9.61B = 4.8x guided FY27 revenue, 22.3x guided adjusted free cash flow, 30.0x guided adjusted EPS. Rule of 40 = 34.6.
- STREET: four targets dated 28 August 2026 - Guggenheim $120, Stifel $107, UBS $105, Cantor Fitzgerald (Neutral) $100. Median $106. We are 24.7% below it. Morgan Stanley's $66 Equalweight of 21 July has not been refreshed.
What to watch: UP: subscription cost of revenue growing SLOWER than subscription revenue for two consecutive quarters; the monthly self-serve cloud line returning to double-digit growth from +1%; gross share issuance under 2M a year. DOWN: gross margin falling another two points; cRPO growth converging back to the revenue line; the FY27 adjusted operating margin guide of 19.4% being cut.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Gorilla Technology (GRRR) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months to 30 June): revenue $78.4M, up 99.3%; gross profit $3.8M, down 71.4%; gross margin 4.9% from 34.2%. IFRS operating loss $47.2M, net loss $46.9M, loss per share $1.74; adjusted EPS -$0.58. The June quarter, derived by subtracting the filed Q1 from the filed half: revenue $50.1M (+138% YoY, +78% QoQ) and gross profit of MINUS $2.11M. Adjusted EPS -$0.40 against a +$0.03 bar. FY2026 guidance raised to at least $200M. The stock fell 11.31% to $14.04 on 25 August and closed the week at $14.41.
Gorilla's June quarter was the largest it has ever printed and the first in which it sold goods for less than they cost: gross profit of minus $2.11M on $50.1M of revenue. Every dollar of the growth is a hardware line that did not exist a year ago ($52.5M, against $0 external in H1 2025), while the service business that carried all of the historic margin shrank 34.2%.
THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, THE BIGGEST QUARTER EVER, SOLD BELOW COST) — base-case value ~$12.7 vs ~$14.41 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CALL: BEARISH 3/5, fair value $12.70 vs the $14.41 close of 28 August (-11.8%). Bear $5.94, base $13.39, bull $26.74, weighted 45/35/20. Street: Buy, $40.50 average (Compass Point $44, Cantor $40, Northland $40, A.G.P. $38) - and every one of those targets predates the release.
- THE GROSS LINE: H1 gross profit $13.4M to $3.8M (-71.4%) while revenue doubled. June-quarter gross profit MINUS $2.11M against $7.04M a year earlier. Incremental gross margin on everything added year on year: -24.6% (revenue +$39.0M, cost of sales +$48.6M).
- THE MIX: hardware $52.5M from $0 external (H1 2025's $22.9M was 100% eliminated on consolidation); services $25.9M from $39.3M, -34.2%. All hardware is booked at a point in time, all services over time.
- THE FUNDING: $232M of 7.50% convertible notes in 63 days ($107M June, $125M July). Of the June $107M only $62.7M is debt - the other $44.3M is the conversion option. Filed effective interest rate 21.59%. Conversion at $25.4826 would add 9.10M shares to 27.24M, +33.4%.
- THE RECEIVABLES: receivables plus contract assets $145.3M against $78.4M of half-year revenue (336 days), of which $104.8M is unbilled. 51.2% of invoiced receivables are past due; the credit-loss provision went $0.94M to $5.16M. Unfulfilled contracts -28.2% to $72.7M.
What to watch: UP: a September quarter inside the guided $48-50M with gross margin back into double digits; cash actually collected against the $104.8M of unbilled contract assets. DOWN: another quarter of revenue growth on a negative gross margin; the credit-loss provision compounding past $5.2M; contract assets rising again at December.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.