Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

JOYY Inc. (JOYY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): net revenues $590.8m vs $507.8m; operating income $13.8m vs $5.8m; non-GAAP operating income $49.1m vs $38.3m; non-GAAP net income $63.5m vs $77.0m; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.24 per ADS vs $1.44. Released after the Tuesday Aug 25 US close, with the call at 9:00 PM ET Tuesday - 9:00 AM Wednesday in Singapore - so Wednesday Aug 26 was the reaction session. It gapped +1.59%, printed $80.90 (+7.87%) inside six minutes, traded down to $72.99 and closed $74.81, -0.25%.
JOYY's Q2 2026 revenue rose 16.3% to $590.8m, the fastest growth in five quarters and a genuine inflection after revenue FELL 5.1% across the whole of 2025. Both lines beat and the full-year profit guide was raised. But the segment doing the accelerating earned nothing on it. BIGO Ads revenue rose 53.1% to $133.7m - $46.4m of new revenue - and its gross profit went from $27.420m to $27.400m. Down $20,000. A 100.0% flow-through to third-party traffic cost, with segment gross margin falling 31.4% to 20.5%.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL REVENUE INFLECTION, A GROWTH ENGINE THAT EARNED NOTHING) — base-case value ~$73.90 vs ~$74.81 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: BIGO Ads revenue rose 53.1% to $133.7m - $46.4m of new revenue - and segment GROSS PROFIT went $27.420m to $27.400m. Down $20,000. A 100.0% flow-through to cost. Segment gross margin 31.4% to 20.5%; group gross margin 36.5% to 34.1% on mix alone.
- THE CROSSOVER: non-GAAP operating income of $49.1m beat interest and investment income of $39.5m by $9.6m - the FIRST time on file. Q1 2026 was $1.8m behind, Q4 2025 was $30,000 behind, FY2025 $11.8m behind and FY2024 $39.5m behind.
- AND IT IS PARTLY SUBTRACTION: net cash fell $3,258.0m to $3,059.3m over the half while $358.8m went to shareholders. Interest income was $162.6m in 2025 and is annualising $158.5m now. Part of the crossover is the business rising, part is the bank falling.
- ON A REPORTED BASIS NOTHING CROSSED: GAAP operating income was $13.8m on $590.8m of revenue and 277.1m monthly users - a 2.3% margin - while the deposits earned $39.5m, or 2.9x the entire operating business.
- THE PROFIT FALL IS NOT OPERATIONAL: non-GAAP EPS fell 13.9% to $1.24 per ADS, but currency swung $14.7m against the company ($0.29 per ADS) and the tax rate went 9.3% to 24.2%. On last year's currency line it would have been $1.53, ABOVE last year's $1.44.
- THE BALANCE SHEET, COUNTED PROPERLY: cash and cash equivalents is only $337.0m. Net cash on the company's own seven-line definition is $3,059.3m, rebuilt from the filed balance sheet to within $15,000. That is $62.47 per ADS, 83% of the price.
- THE STREET: only TWO targets could be sourced AND dated - J.P. Morgan Overweight $98 (Aug 12, an upgrade from Neutral) and Citi Buy $78 (Jan 13, reaffirmed Jul 22) - averaging $88.00. We value JOYY at $73.90 against $74.81: HOLD, 3/5.
What to watch: UP: adjusted operating income rose 28.2% and beat interest income for the FIRST time ever, by $9.6m; the full-year guide was RAISED to about 20% growth; net cash is $62.47 per ADS against a $74.81 close; and $358.8m was returned in under eight months. DOWN: the growth engine runs at 20.5% gross margin, group gross margin fell 240bp, stock compensation went $4.0m to $16.6m, and interest income is annualising 2.5% below 2025 as the pile is paid out.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): operating revenue $7,446m vs $6,590m; NPAT $1,672m vs $1,316m; underlying NPAT $1,334m vs $1,247m; basic EPS 88.2 US cps vs 69.4. Released to the ASX on the morning of Aug 25 Australian time - 19:00 US Central on Mon Aug 24, four hours after the NYSE close - so the ADSs gapped -4.62% on Aug 25 and closed -4.03% on 1.95x 20-day volume, then added 0.17% on Aug 26.
Woodside's H1 2026 revenue rose 13% to $7,446m and profit rose 27% to $1,672m. Free cash flow rose 159% to $352m and capital expenditure fell 36% to $1,637m. Both of those last two turn on one figure: $1,725m of capital contributions received from Stonepeak and Williams for the Louisiana LNG terminal. The report states the $352m free cash flow INCLUDES it, and the company's own reconciliation on page 67 SUBTRACTS the same $1,725m from capital additions of $3,362m to reach the reported $1,637m. Strip it out and free cash flow was -$1,373m, and gross spending fell 24%, not 36%.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD PRODUCING BASE, A HEADLINE HALF PAID FOR BY PARTNERS) — base-case value ~$24.22 vs ~$22.90 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: $1,725m of partner capital contributions is ADDED into the reported $352m free cash flow and SUBTRACTED from reported capital expenditure. Both treatments are disclosed. Neither is cash the business earned.
- WITHOUT IT: free cash flow was -$1,373m (from -$1,734m a year ago, so it did improve). On the plainest definition - operating less investing cash - the half consumed $1,273m while paying $1,122m of dividends.
- THE CEILING: Stonepeak committed up to $5,700m and had paid $4,262m by June 30 - 74.8% - against a Louisiana LNG terminal 28% complete with first cargo targeted 2029. Only $1,438m is left and it cannot be topped up.
- FRONT-LOADED BY DESIGN: Stonepeak owns 40% of Louisiana LNG Infrastructure but contributes 75% of expected project capex, in 2025 and 2026 only. On the call an analyst noted the contribution is fixed, so overruns fall on Woodside.
- A NON-CASH HALF: statutory NPAT of $1,672m EXCEEDS underlying $1,334m because $507m post-tax of deferred tax assets were recognised. That is 30% of reported profit; cash tax PAID rose to $825m.
- MORE REVENUE FROM FEWER BARRELS: production fell 13% to 86.5 MMboe while the realised price rose 20% to $74.0/boe. The July 29 Q2 report had already published $4,185m of quarterly revenue.
- THE STREET: seven named, dated Australian targets average A$31.54, or $22.58 - below the tape. All three notes published on results day are Hold and two were cuts. We value WDS at $24.22 against $22.90: HOLD, 3/5.
What to watch: UP: Scarborough is 98% complete with first cargo targeted this quarter, guidance implies a bigger second half than the first, reliability ran 98.7% / 99.5% / 99.1%, and a $350m cost-out target starts in 2028. DOWN: only $1,438m of the $5,700m partner ceiling is left against a terminal 28% built, $9,699m of contracted spending is still to come, and gearing is 20.6% against a 10-20% target.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Cadeler A/S (CDLR) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): revenue EUR 407.5m vs EUR 298.5m; EBITDA EUR 207.6m; profit EUR 87.9m vs EUR 167.7m; basic EPS EUR 0.24 vs EUR 0.48. Published 08:00 CET on Aug 25, six hours before the US open: the ADSs gapped +8.47% and closed +8.64% on 1.54x median volume, then gave back 3.23% on Aug 26.
Cadeler's H1 2026 revenue rose to EUR 407.5m and its EBITDA to EUR 207.6m - both more than doubled once you strip the EUR 111.0m of termination fees out of the comparative half. Yet profit fell from EUR 167.7m to EUR 87.9m and EPS halved. The explanation is one line below EBITDA: depreciation went from EUR 44.5m to EUR 86.3m and the net financing line swung from EUR 3.2m of income to EUR 34.5m of cost. Together the cost of OWNING the fleet rose EUR 79.4m against a EUR 79.8m fall in profit - 99.5% of it.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE FLEET STOPPED BEING BUILT AND STARTED BEING OWNED) — base-case value ~$25.01 vs ~$25.20 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE SPINE: depreciation plus net financing cost rose EUR 79.421m. Profit fell EUR 79.832m. That is 99.5% of the entire fall, explained by two lines that contain no trading decision at all.
- THE MECHANISM: borrowing costs capitalised into hulls fell from EUR 29.0m to EUR 12.5m - at a CHEAPER capitalisation rate, 2.5% against 3.6%, so it is a quantity effect, not a rate effect.
- THE TRIGGER IS A DATE: EUR 390.2m of steel left assets under construction, taking the balance from EUR 600.1m to EUR 352.9m. The fleet is only 9.7% depreciated - this schedule is just starting.
- WHAT REACHED A SHAREHOLDER: adjusted EBITDA rose EUR 106.1m; depreciation took EUR 41.8m and financing EUR 37.7m; tax gave back EUR 4.5m; EUR 31.2m arrived. 29.4 cents in the euro.
- THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT, AT FULL STRENGTH: gross profit per contracted day ROSE 18.6%, to EUR 134.4k. Contracted days went 770 to 1,198 and June-quarter utilisation was 85% against 76%.
- IT GROWS AGAIN: EUR 228m drawn on Wind Ace in July, a EUR 380m facility for the EUR 501m Menck purchase in August, and EUR 805m of T-class vessels ordered for 2030 and 2031 delivery.
- THE VENDOR 'BEAT' IS A RESIDUAL: Cadeler files no standalone Q2 income statement. The quoted $1.16 EPS and $330.2m revenue are H1 minus the filed Q1, converted and divided by the 4:1 ADS ratio.
What to watch: UP: a EUR 2,487m order book with 77% behind a client FID, an equity ratio of 50%, and a foundation-vessel shortage the company's own supply chart puts from 2030. DOWN: EUR 1,110m of committed steel is unpaid, the funding slide ends at EUR 150m of net liquidity, and 2026 guidance still excludes Menck.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

TORM plc (TRMD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $662.8m, UP 110.28%; TCE earnings $512.0m; net profit $338.3m vs $58.7m; basic EPS $3.31, diluted $3.25. TCE per ship per day $59,301 vs $26,672. Announced BEFORE the bell Aug 26 (6-K accepted 06:06 ET, call 09:00 ET); shares opened -0.16% and closed -4.42% on 3.55x median volume.
TORM plc reported the largest quarter in its 137-year history: TCE per ship per day of $59,301 against $26,672, net profit of $338.3m against $58.7m, and NO gain on selling ships in it at all. Then the shares fell 4.42%. The reason is on page two of the same document: as of August 18, TORM had already fixed 73% of the September quarter - 6,431 of 8,834 available days - at $38,606 a day, 34.90% BELOW the rate that produced the record. Only 2,403 days are still open.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE NEXT QUARTER IS ALREADY 73% SOLD AT A THIRD LESS) — base-case value ~$30.30 vs ~$30.08 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE FORWARD BOOK: as of August 18, 6,431 of the September quarter's 8,834 available days were already fixed at $38,606/day - 73% of the quarter, at 34.90% below the $59,301/day that made the record. Every class: LR2 -26.5%, MR -38.2%, LR1 -43.3%.
- THE CEILING: only 2,403 days remain open. If they repeat the record exactly, September still blends to $44,235/day, 25.4% under June. To MATCH June they must average $114,686/day - 1.93x the $59,296 record spot rate.
- THE GUIDANCE AGREES: raised $200m to TCE of $1,400-1,600m. Strip out the $798.0m already delivered and the RAISED range implies a second half of $34,230-$45,602/day, a midpoint 32.7% below the June quarter.
- THE RECORD IS CLEAN: profit from selling ships was ZERO, there was no impairment, and non-recurring items were -$1.7m on a $338.3m result. Tax was $0.8m on $339.1m of pre-tax profit - a 0.24% rate under tonnage tax.
- THE PAYOUT IS A RESIDUAL: $2.40/share, $245.7m, described as 73% of net profit. The stated policy pays liquidity above $1.8m per vessel (=$174.6m on 97 ships) PLUS a Board discretionary element - and the Board held back $383.8m beyond the rule, 2.20x the rule itself.
- THE SHIPS: valuers marked the fleet at $4,056m on June 30, 39.0% above the $2,918.8m carrying value, against 13.8% six months earlier. Per ship that is $41.8m vs $33.4m in December, +25.0% in half a year. Stated NAV $36.50/share.
- EPS BASIS PROVED TWICE: $1.21 + $3.31 = $4.52 basic and $1.18 + $3.25 = $4.43 diluted, both exactly the filed half-year. The widely quoted 'EPS miss' compares the diluted actual to a figure that IS the basic line.
What to watch: UP: the strait shut again in early Q3, the Houthis resumed attacks, rerouting Saudi barrels could nearly double voyage distances, and net debt is 22.4% of ship values. DOWN: the RAISED guidance itself implies a second half 32.7% below June, and the $4,056m valuer mark was set at the top of the same cycle.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2026): Q4 net sales $465.0m, DOWN 2.19%; adjusted diluted EPS $1.46 vs a $1.40 bar; GAAP $1.76. FY2026 net sales $1,929.8m, adjusted EPS $6.83. Reported BEFORE the bell Aug 25 (8-K accepted 07:38 ET); shares gapped +2.74%, closed +1.37%, then fell 3.32% on Aug 26.
Marzetti (formerly Lancaster Colony) reported adjusted EPS of $1.46 against a $1.40 bar and net sales of $465.0m against $479.0m. But the fact that reframes the business is in the 10-K: one privately held restaurant chain, Chick-fil-A, is 30% of consolidated net sales ($575.7m of $1,929.8m), up from 29% and 28%, and Marzetti sits on BOTH sides of it - licensee of the brand in the grocery aisle, private-label supplier to the kitchens. In FY2026 the licensed half (Retail) saw operating profit FALL 3.79% to $203.7m while the private-label half (Foodservice) grew it 17.70% to $131.3m. We value MZTI at $136.61 against $113.45 and rate it BUY, conviction 3/5.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, THE PROFIT ENGINE MOVED TO THE UNBRANDED HALF) — base-case value ~$136.61 vs ~$113.45 today.
KEY METRICS:
- CONCENTRATION: Chick-fil-A is $575.7m of $1,929.8m of FY2026 net sales - 30%, up from 29% and 28% - across BOTH a Foodservice supply relationship and an exclusive Retail licence. Its sales grew $27.5m; the company grew $20.7m, so the other $1.35bn FELL 0.50%.
- THE TWO HALVES: Foodservice operating profit +17.70% to $131.3m at a 14.17% margin, best of five filed years; Retail -3.79% to $203.7m at 20.31%. Segment profit rose $11.7m and Foodservice supplied $19.8m of it - 168.5%.
- THE BRANDED PREMIUM: Retail's margin advantage over Foodservice was 1,002bp in FY2024, 878bp in FY2025 and 614bp now - 38.7% of it gone in two filed years.
- EPS BASIS, PROVED: the four filed FY2026 quarters of GAAP diluted EPS (1.71+2.15+1.35+1.76) sum to $6.97 vs a filed annual $6.98. The $1.46 reported as 'actual' is ADJUSTED; GAAP Q4 was $1.76 on an $18.5m land-sale gain in operating income.
- THE MISS WAS PRE-ANNOUNCED: $465.0m against a $479.0m bar is a $13.9m shortfall, and $12.2m of it - 87.5% - is a supply agreement the company said in May had already ended.
- THE DEAL: Bachan's closed May 1 for $399.3m, the largest in company history and 27% of total assets, adding $15.4m in two months - 4.31x annualised sales against 1.61x for MZTI itself. $161.5m of net cash became $174.9m of net debt.
- THE MODEL: owner earnings $182.2m (midpoint of a $193.8m cash build and a $170.5m profit build), 6.97% WACC carrying a full point of concentration premium, blended 50/50 with 12.0x EBITDA = $136.61. Street average $131.67, all holds.
What to watch: UP: a 63rd straight year of dividend increases, a 3.48% yield covered 1.90x by free cash flow, Foodservice margin at a five-year high, and a $170.04 bull case. DOWN: Retail pounds fell 3.2% ex-Bachan's and the licence agreements can end on short notice.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $5,936.9m from continuing operations, UP 79%. Profit attributable to owners $1,854.6m, or $2.07 a basic share, UP 81%. Interim payout 1,625 SA cents, UP 132%. Released on SENS in Johannesburg on Aug 25; the ADSs closed +3.25% on 1.11x median volume.
Gold Fields reported profit attributable to owners of $1,854.6m for the six months to June 30, 2026 - up 81% - and more than doubled its interim payout to 1,625 SA cents. But paragraphs 6.26-6.33 of the JSE Listings Requirements had already forced it to publish that earnings range on August 11: headline earnings of $1.98-$2.18 a share. The print was $2.08, the EXACT midpoint. We value GFI at $38.05 against $47.82 and rate it SELL, conviction 3/5.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A GREAT HALF THE COMPANY DID NOT CREATE) — base-case value ~$38.05 vs ~$47.82 today.
KEY METRICS:
- PRE-ANNOUNCED: the JSE-mandated trading statement of August 11 guided headline earnings to $1.98-$2.18 a share. The print, 14 days later, was $2.08 - the exact midpoint. Basic earnings guided $1.97-$2.17 and printed $2.07.
- SO WAS THE CASH FLOW: adjusted free cash flow before discretionary growth was guided to $2,385m-$2,636m. Midpoint $2,510.5m; filed $2,510.0m - 0.02% away. Output guided 1,260koz, printed 1,267koz; AISC guided $1,900/oz, printed $1,893/oz.
- SO WAS THE PAYOUT: policy is a fixed 35% of that cash flow. 35% of $2,510.0m is $878.5m, or 98.3c a share; the declared 1,625 SA cents is 99.1c at the filed June 30 rate of R16.39. The only new number was $500m added to the returns programme - 1.17% of market value.
- PRICE, NOT PERFORMANCE: revenue per ounce $3,089 to $4,681, AISC $1,682 to $1,893, on 1,126koz to 1,292koz sold. The cash margin pool rose $2,017.8m: metal +$1,792.6m, volume +$233.6m, unit cost -$237.6m, interaction +$229.2m. Volume less cost is MINUS $4.0m.
- SEVEN OF NINE MINES PRODUCED LESS GOLD: Gruyere -17%, St Ives -8%, Agnew -15%, South Deep -1%, Tarkwa -18%, Damang -57%, Cerro Corona -42%. Salares Norte alone added 213.3koz against a group increase of 131koz. Eight of nine saw dollar AISC rise; six by more than 30%.
- NO SUPERLATIVE INHERITED: H2 2025 reported $2,540.7m of attributable profit against this half's $1,854.6m, because it holds a $808.2m NON-CASH gain on remeasuring the prior 50% of Gruyere. On headline earnings, $1,854.7m IS the largest half filed.
- THE VALUATION: 2.5Moz a year at $2,011/oz of all-in cost outside Windfall, inflating 2.5%, taxed 32%, discounted 9% over 18 years, gold held FLAT at $4,598/oz. Fair value $38.05 vs $47.82 - and $47.82 implies a flat $5,183/oz forever, 12.7% above spot.
What to watch: UP: net cash of $22.4m excluding leases, 0.06x leverage, $2,225.3m of adjusted free cash flow in six months, and a $51.59 bull case if gold keeps pace with inflation. DOWN: seven of nine operations produced LESS gold and the price already discounts a flat $5,183/oz.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended July 31, 2026): net sales $2,219.3m, UP 5.02%. GAAP diluted EPS $3.03; adjusted $3.24 against a $2.22 bar. FY2027 guide raised to $10.50-$11.00 from $9.75-$10.25. Reported BEFORE the bell Aug 26 (8-K header 07:02 ET); shares opened +7.45% and closed +4.34%.
Smucker reported adjusted earnings of $3.24 a share against a $2.22 consensus bar - up 71% - and raised its full-year guidance midpoint by $0.75. The shares rose 4.34%. But $0.84 of that quarter is a refund of import duties Smucker had already paid: $115.0m landed in cost of products sold, plus $4.0m of interest, under IEEPA claims filed in April 2026. That is 82.35% of the entire beat - and the company says $0.60 of the $0.75 raise is the same money, so 80.00% of the raise is a customs refund the 10-Q says has now been substantially all collected. We value SJM at $125.56 against $130.90 and rate it HOLD, conviction 3/5.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A DEPENDABLE DIVIDEND, A BORROWED EARNINGS YEAR) — base-case value ~$125.56 vs ~$130.9 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE REFUND, DERIVED: $115.0m of IEEPA duty refunds in cost of products sold plus $4.0m of interest = $119.0m pre-tax; at the filed 24.2% rate on 107.1m diluted shares that is $0.8422 a share. The company says $0.84.
- THE BEAT: adjusted EPS $3.24 vs a $2.22 bar = a $1.02 beat, of which $0.84 (82.35%) is the refund. Ex-refund the quarter earned $2.40 - growth of 26.32%, not 71% - and beat by $0.18.
- THE RAISE IS SMALLER THAN THE WINDFALL: the FY2027 midpoint went $10.00 to $10.75, up $0.75, against $0.84 already banked in Q1. The company states $0.60 of the range is the tariff benefit = 80.00% of the raise; $0.15 is the business.
- THE SPEND: the SD&A guide moved from +5.0% to +8.0% on a filed $1,496.6m base = $44.9m of new planned spending - the $0.24 a share difference between the $0.84 received and the $0.60 retained.
- THE MARGIN GUIDE FELL: adjusted gross margin guided 38.00% to 38.75%, but the release says the new figure now includes the $115.0m of refunds. Ex-refund it is 37.46%, DOWN 54bp - and the $181.0m of revenue added to the guide earns 11.41 cents on the dollar.
- COFFEE IS A CYCLE: segment margin 37.14% vs 18.71% (+1843bp), best of five filed quarters, and 87.49% of the rise in segment profit. But across fiscal 2026 coffee sales rose 17.75% while coffee profit FELL 11.77%.
- THE BALANCE SHEET: net debt $6,694.6m, leverage 2.92x trailing EBITDA vs 3.76x in April - but 3.07x with the refund stripped out. Dividend $4.48 (3.42%), 41.67% payout, covered 2.29x by guided free cash flow.
What to watch: UP: a $4.48 dividend, a 3.42% yield covered 2.29x by guided free cash flow, net debt down $210.5m in the quarter, and a $151.42 bull case if the 37.14% coffee margin is a new level. DOWN: net sales are still guided to FALL 1-2% and the ex-refund gross margin guide fell 54bp.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Q2 FY2027 — Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended July 26, 2026): net sales $341.9m, UP 32.73%, an all-time quarterly record. GAAP diluted EPS $1.59; adjusted $0.71 against a $0.614 bar. Q3 guided to $410.0m and $1.05. Reported AFTER the close Aug 25 (8-K header 16:06 ET); shares closed +10.41% on Aug 26 on 5.17x median volume.
Semtech filed the largest quarter in its history - net sales of $341.9m, up 32.73% - and guided the third quarter to $410.0m and $1.05 a share. The shares rose 10.41%. But reported EPS of $1.59 sits ABOVE adjusted EPS of $0.71, which is backwards for a semiconductor company: pre-tax income was $54.7m and the tax line was a $101.4m BENEFIT, 63.34% of net income, on a $112.4m non-cash release of a U.S. valuation allowance carried since fiscal 2024. And twelve days before the print, Semtech agreed to sell 14.07% of its revenue for $62.0m. We value SMTC at $140.07 against $140.80 and rate it HOLD, conviction 3/5.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL INFLECTION AT A FAIR PRICE) — base-case value ~$140.07 vs ~$140.8 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE ROUND TRIP: $1,240.8m paid for Sierra Wireless; $847.9m of goodwill written off (68.34%); $62.0m agreed sale price to Compal Electronics = 5.00% of the purchase price.
- TWO PRICES FOR REVENUE: the disposal group did $48.1m of sales (14.07% of the company) at a 22.66% gross margin. Compal pays 0.322x annualised revenue; SMTC trades at 10.59x - a 32.9x gap.
- NO LOSS ON SALE: assets held for sale $132.2m less liabilities held for sale $70.7m = $61.5m net book value against a $62.0m price.
- THE TAX ENTRY: pre-tax income $54.7m, tax line a $101.4m BENEFIT (63.34% of net income), from a $112.4m non-cash valuation allowance release. At an 18% rate the quarter earns ~$0.49.
- WHAT WORKS: Signal Integrity +64.32% to $126.2m at 65.3% gross margin - 58.6% of the entire revenue increase. Infrastructure +68.70%; IoT +10.70% with gross margin -550bp.
- THE GUIDE: Q3 net sales $410.0m (+19.92% seq), adjusted EPS $1.05 (+47.89%), adjusted operating margin 31.0% vs 24.40%; incremental margin 63.73%.
- THE TAPE: +10.41% on Aug 26, 5.17x median volume, 3rd heaviest of 256 sessions. +190.49% in twelve months and still 19.42% below the $174.73 closing high of June 22.
What to watch: UP: the guided quarter implies a 63.73% incremental adjusted operating margin against a 24.40% base, and Signal Integrity grew 64.32% at a 65.3% gross margin. DOWN: the case spread is 312%, the bear values the company near where it traded twelve months ago, and the divestiture still needs regulatory approval.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Williams Sonoma (WSM) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 2, 2026): net revenues $1.96bn, UP 6.70%, comparable brand revenue +6.2%. GAAP diluted EPS $2.84; non-GAAP $2.10 against a $2.08 bar. Outlook RAISED. Shares opened -4.58% and closed +1.15% at $237.43 on 2.34x median volume.
Comparable brand revenue grew 6.2%, the best of the eight filed quarters we assembled, and every brand was positive. But $123.0m of new revenue produced only $10.4m of new operating profit on the company's own adjusted basis - 8.47 cents on the dollar, against a base business earning 17.3 cents. Occupancy (+40bp) and supply chain (+30bp) both levered; merchandise margin, which the release attributes to tariff costs, took 230bp. That is why the RAISED margin guide of 17.8%-18.2% still has a midpoint BELOW the 18.1% fiscal 2025 delivered.
THE CALL: SELL (4/5, AN EXCELLENT RETAILER AT A FULL MULTIPLE) — base-case value ~$177.58 vs ~$237.43 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE INCREMENTAL DOLLAR: $123.0m of new revenue produced $27.0m of new non-GAAP gross profit (21.96 cents) and $10.4m of new non-GAAP operating profit - 8.47 cents on the dollar against a 17.3% base margin, 48.98% of the base rate. Over the half: 5.75 cents.
- THE DEMAND SIDE IS FINE: comparable brand revenue +6.2%, the best of eight filed quarters, on revenue +6.70% to $1.96bn. Pottery Barn (39.33% of the quarter) went from -2.3% two quarters ago to +5.1%. West Elm +6.4%, Williams Sonoma +7.6%, Kids and Teen +3.5%.
- THE COMPANY'S OWN BRIDGE: occupancy leverage +40bp and supply chain efficiency +30bp against merchandise margin -230bp, which the release attributes to tariff costs - about $45.1m at this quarter's revenue. The two scale wins covered 30.43% of the tariff bill.
- THE INVERTED GAAP SPREAD: reported EPS $2.84 sits ABOVE non-GAAP $2.10 because of a $167.8m IEEPA tariff refund inside cost of goods sold plus $6.3m of interest, less a $47.5m vendor provision and a $10.0m one-off 401(k) cost - $116.7m pre-tax, $0.74 a share.
- THE RAISE IS A REVENUE RAISE: the margin band went 17.5%-18.1% (18 March), was reiterated word for word (21 May), and became 17.8%-18.2% (26 August) - a 20bp midpoint move against 125bp on revenue. FISCAL 2025 DELIVERED 18.1%, above the 18.0% midpoint.
- THE PRICE: 23.94x trailing earnings against a 15.80x median we measured across 25 quarterly observations. Since March 2023 the shares are up 4.06x and trailing earnings 1.18x - 88.1% of the return is re-rating. At 9.5% the price needs 5.52% growth forever.
- THE COUNTERWEIGHT, WHICH IS REAL: zero borrowings, $1,028.9m of cash, a filed 42.3% return on invested capital and the best operating margin on our board. Fiscal 2025 returned $1.17bn - 110.9% of that year's free cash flow. Our bull case $244.59 clears the tape.
What to watch: UP: merchandise margin recovering as the tariff comparison laps - management called Q2 the peak quarter of tariff pressure. DOWN: the raised guide needs second-half margin EXPANSION after a first half in which it fell 60bp, at 23.94x against a 15.80x six-year median.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Intuit (INTU) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (year ended July 31, 2026): Q4 revenue $4,354m (+13.65%) vs a $4,266.8m bar; Q4 adjusted EPS $4.03 vs $3.58 - a 12.6% BEAT. Full year: revenue $21,448m (+13.90%), adjusted EPS $24.27 (+20.45%). Shares gapped -9.51% and closed -3.24% at $345.88.
Effective August 1, 2026 - day one of the year it was guiding - Intuit stopped excluding share-based compensation from non-GAAP. FY2026's reported $24.27 contained $7.42 a share of added-back stock pay. The FY2027 guide of $22.88-$23.12 INCLUDES $5.81 of it, so the printed figure FALLS 5.2% while the release advertises +23% to +24% growth - against a restated base of $18.63 printed nowhere in the document.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ON THE GUIDE IT WROTE, NOT THE ONE THE STREET READ) — base-case value ~$413.13 vs ~$345.88 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE DEFINITION CHANGED ON DAY ONE OF THE GUIDED YEAR: from Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP no longer excludes share-based compensation. FY2026's $24.27 added back $2,056m of stock pay - $7.42 a share pre-tax, 30.6% of the reported figure. The FY2027 guide includes $5.81 of it.
- SO THE GUIDE IS SMALLER THAN LAST YEAR AND STILL CALLED GROWTH: $22.88-$23.12 is 5.2% BELOW the $24.27 just reported, yet the release prints '+23% to 24%'. Reconstructed: $2,056m at the company's own 24% non-GAAP rate over 277m shares is $5.64; $24.27 less $5.64 is $18.63 - a base never printed.
- A 21.3-POINT SWING IN ONE NUMBER: against the Street's $27.30 FY2027 bar the headline guide reads -15.8%, a miss. Add the $5.81 back and it reads +5.5%, a beat. Proof the bar is on the old basis: Q1 guidance of $2.46 plus its own stated $1.48 of stock pay is $3.94 vs a $3.99 consensus.
- THE REVENUE LINE HAS NO ACCOUNTING DEFENCE: Table E shows GAAP revenue IS non-GAAP revenue. FY2027 guided $23,279-$23,512m = +8.5% to +9.6% against +13.9% delivered, and 1.4% under the $23.72bn Street figure. The three-year GBS target was cut on the call from 15-20% to 10-15%.
- TURBOTAX GREW ON PRICE, NOT PEOPLE: US federal units FELL 2.3% to 39.0m and desktop fell 6.8%, while TurboTax revenue rose 7% to $5.3bn. FY2027 guides TurboTax +2.2%. Mailchimp was carved into its own segment in the same release that guides it to -1% to 0%.
- A 17% WORKFORCE CUT MOVED THE STOCK-PAY BILL 1.8%: the May 20 8-K estimated $300-340m of charges; the charge landed at $293m, BELOW its own low end, all in Q4 - 61.7% of that quarter's $475m of GAAP operating income. Yet FY2027 stock pay is guided $2,020m vs $2,056m.
- THE BALANCE SHEET TAKES ALMOST NOTHING OFF THE TABLE: $7.2bn cash and investments vs $7.7bn debt, so net debt is $469m. Operating cash flow $8,838m (+42.4%), but $1,279m is deferred tax, so normalised free cash flow is $7,338m - a 7.76% yield.
What to watch: UP: the October quarter, guided +11% against a full year of 9-10%, and TurboTax units turning positive after falling 2.3%. DOWN: another year of falling federal units, or the cut 10-15% GBS target being cut again on September 17.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.