Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Q4 FY2026 — CMC traded near $67.93 in early trading, up 4.04% versus the prior close; this is a frozen intraday snapshot, not a closing return.
Steel margins expanded and annual cash generation improved. Yet precast missed expectations, taxes flattered EPS growth, and acquisition debt still matters. We test what the bigger portfolio must earn to justify the price.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$70.00 vs ~$67.93 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $2,658.3M, +25.7% YoY
- Core EBITDA $393.7M, +35.1% YoY; company non-GAAP
- GAAP EPS $1.91; adjusted EPS $2.09
- North America metal margin $652/ton
- Precast adjusted EBITDA $57.0M, below prior expectations
- FY2026 operating cash flow $1,059.0M; capex $579.8M; computed FCF $479.1M
- Ordinary net debt $2,605.2M; separate litigation reserve $377.3M
What to watch: Steel spreads hold, precast recovers after seasonal weakness, and free cash flow improves while net debt falls; otherwise require a material discount.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cmc-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

GoldMining Inc. (GLDG) Q3 FY2026 — Reference price $0.821 is the October 14 close. No isolated earnings-day reaction is asserted; issuer release time is unconfirmed.
GoldMining reports substantial working capital, but locked holdings and subsidiary cash complicate the funding picture. We separate spendable cash, quoted stakes and preliminary project value.
THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$0.76 vs ~$0.821 at the October 14 close.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 exploration expense C$11.398m; operating loss C$14.851m
- Nine-month operating cash flow −C$25.273m
- Cash C$16.675m includes C$5.763m at USGO
- Working capital C$46.608m includes restricted NevGold holding
- NevGold August 31 carrying value C$27.656m; hold period to Feb 27, 2027
- HOLD; anchor $0.76; reference $0.821; scenario weighted $0.822
What to watch: Reassess near $0.53 with the thesis intact, or on credible project funding without expensive dilution. Watch residual cash, ending shares and the December 8 ATM expiry.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/gldg-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q3 2026 — Reference price $1,717.76 is the October 13 pre-release Nasdaq close; no current earnings-day reaction is asserted.
ASML delivered a stronger operating quarter, but the surging cash inflow includes a large working-capital contribution and net income includes an investment gain. We separate recurring earnings from timing and show what the share price already assumes.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1650.00 vs ~$1717.76 at the October 13 pre-release close.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue €11,662.0M, up 55.2% year over year
- US GAAP operating income €5,172.8M, up 109.6%
- Gross margin 57.5%; prior Q3 guidance 55–57%
- Net income €4,960.4M includes €509.7M investment gain
- Operating cash flow €11,797.6M includes €7,009.0M changes in assets and liabilities
- FCF €11,350.4M after PP&E and intangible purchases
- Q4 sales guidance €14.2–15.2B; gross margin around 57%
- HOLD; fair value $1,650; reference $1,717.76; weighted scenario value $1,725
What to watch: Reconsider near $1,320 with the thesis intact, or on stronger recurring earnings evidence. Test Q4 revenue €14.2–15.2B, gross margin near 57%, and cash conversion after working-capital timing.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/asml-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) Q2 FY2026 — No verified post-release price reaction.
Albertsons withdrew its FY2026 outlook after a prior cut. Identical sales declined, margins weakened and cash distributions exceeded interim free cash flow. We test the apparent discount against earnings power, debt and a recovery that remains unproven.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, High uncertainty) — Base-case value (scenario range $8–20) ~$14 vs ~$12.54 (Oct 12 completed close before release).
KEY METRICS:
- $18.895B revenue; identical sales −0.8%
- $784M adjusted EBITDA, down 7.6%
- $310.7M interim free cash flow versus $565.4M distributions
- FY2026 guidance withdrawn; $9.046B financial net debt
What to watch: Reconsider below $11 only with stabilizing identical sales, EBITDA margin and cash coverage.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/aci-q2-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PepsiCo (PEP) Q3 2026 — The retained intraday quote was $126.43; the earnings-day close was not yet available.
A $178 million tariff refund exceeded the $140 million increase in core operating profit, while PepsiCo reduced its core earnings outlook. International strength and the dividend help, but domestic profit conversion remains the test.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — Fair value ~$135 vs ~$126.43 Oct 8 intraday observation.
KEY METRICS:
- $25.274bn revenue; 3.1% organic growth
- $178m tariff refund versus $140m core profit increase
- Core CC EPS outlook cut to +1%–2%
What to watch: Revisit at $115 with the operating thesis intact; require North America margin repair and recurring profit growth.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/pep-q3-2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Q1 FY2027 — Shares rose about 4.24% since the print to $24.82 in the retained after-hours snapshot; this is not a completed next-day reaction.
Applied Digital is collecting meaningful HPC base rent, but tenant fit-out makes up much of the revenue headline. We separate property economics from construction funding, preferred claims and dilution to see what can reach each common share.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$20.00 vs ~$24.82 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q1 FY2027 revenue $341.875M; current comparable prior year $80.934M
- HPC base rent $65.8M; tenant fit-out $183.5M; recoveries $13.3M
- HPC NOI $58.829M; reported NOI margin89%
- GAAP operating loss $62.379M; total common loss $237.082M
- Adjusted EBITDA $64.412M excludes ChronoScale and other adjustments
- Operating cash $63.921M vs $2,074.698M asset purchases
- Debt carrying value $6,376.592M; unrestricted cash $2,949.909M
- Live capacity250MW October1; management year-end objective300MW
- Base fair value$20; scenario range$8–$40; weighted value$22; analyst assumptions
What to watch: Verify at least 300 MW live by year-end, next-quarter base rent above $80M with NOI margin at least85%, and controlled financing and dilution. These are our financial tests; 300 MW is management’s objective.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/apld-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Q4 FY2026 — The reference close is $64.21; exact release timing is unconfirmed, so this is not labeled a post-earnings reaction.
Penguin Solutions beat expectations and raised its fiscal 2027 outlook. Memory supplied most of the sales increase while working capital absorbed cash. We examine the operating bridge, financing dilution and cash assumptions behind common-share value.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$60 vs ~$64.21 October 6 regular-session close.
KEY METRICS:
- Q4 revenue $566.685M, up 67.7% year over year
- Adjusted diluted EPS $1.00; GAAP diluted EPS $1.29
- FY2026 operating cash flow -$151.914M; capex $11.569M
- Computed FY2026 free cash flow -$163.483M
- FY2027 revenue growth outlook 40% ±10 percentage points; adjusted EPS $4.45 ±$0.70
- Base fair value $60; bear $35; bull $100; high uncertainty
What to watch: A price near $48 with the thesis intact, or better cash conversion supporting higher fair value.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/peng-q4-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Constellation Brands (STZ) Q2 FY2027 — Reference price $115.91 is the October 6 pre-release quote at 3:59:59 p.m. Eastern; no completed post-print session is asserted.
Beer shipments rose 5.5% while depletions fell 0.6%. Comparable profit dollars were flat, even as a smaller share count lifted EPS. We test whether the sales rebound can become a durable demand recovery.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$130.00 vs ~$115.91 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Net sales $2,633M, up 6.1% computed YoY
- Comparable EPS $3.74; comparable income $637.3M versus $637.8M
- Beer shipments +5.5%; depletions -0.6%
- Beer operating margin 39.0%, down 160 bps
- H1 FCF $1,124.5M; FY27 guide $1.6–$1.7B
What to watch: Positive beer depletions, shipment/depletion gap below 3 points, beer margin at least 38%, and FY27 FCF floor $1.6B maintained; price-only margin-of-safety threshold $104.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/stz-q2-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Q3 FY2026 — Saved October 2 intraday reference: $3.165; this is not the completed earnings-session return.
Trilogy Metals reported a small profit without producing copper. A derivative gain drove the bottom line, while the closed government investment funds the next work program rather than the mine build.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$2.09 vs ~$3.165 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Q3 net income $0.244M; derivative gain $11.564M
- Loss excluding derivative mark $11.320M (our diagnostic, not issuer adjusted earnings)
- August 31 cash $31.209M; current cover shares 181.361M
- Trilogy government proceeds $17.8M committed to Ambler Metals
- Our fair value $2.09; illustrative scenarios $0.89–$3.50; very high uncertainty
What to watch: Reassess on a current capital-cost estimate and credible project finance, retained permitting milestones, year-end cash and dilution; lower price helps only with the thesis intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tmq-q3-fy2026
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Q1 FY2027 — The saved $32.78 after-hours reference was 6.74% below the $35.15 regular-session close. The next-session closing reaction remains pending.
THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$25.00 vs ~$32.78 at the saved October 1, 2026 after-hours reference.
KEY METRICS:
- Q1 revenue $11.213B; gross margin 42.8%; diluted EPS $0.48
- FY2027 adjusted EPS guide $1.15–$1.35 excludes about $0.15 of Pace expense
- Pace savings about $2.5B cumulative through FY2031 before $1B additional charges and reinvestment
- FY2026 FCF $2.184B versus $2.407B cash dividends; current net financial cash $475M
- SELL, $25 central value, $25.30 weighted, $16–$40 scenarios; saved $32.78 after-hours reference
What to watch: Improve direct demand and Greater China, sustain gross margin and demonstrate cash retained after restructuring and distributions.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/nke-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.